Four years on: Russia-Ukraine war

The Russia-Ukraine war, which on February 24 has been ongoing for four years, shows no signs of moving toward peace or ending in victory for either side. Four years ago, even as American intelligence agencies observed clear signs of an imminent war along Russia's borders just before the UN Security Council’s final efforts to avert the conflict on February 24, 2022, Ukrainian authorities were not fully prepared to accept it. Consequently, its military mobilization and other preparations were delayed. It was during the Security Council’s session that Russian President Putin announced the launch of land, sea, and air attacks.

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Putin’s primary demands were the demilitarisation of Ukraine and the cessation of what he described as genocide against ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Furthermore, he demanded recognition of Russia's ownership of the Ukrainian territories seized by Russia and insisted that neighboring Finland at the doorstep of Russia, not be granted membership in the U.S.-led NATO alliance. With the onset of the war, in addition to military aid from the U.S. and the E.U., then-U.S. President Joe Biden announced sanctions against President Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, four major Russian banks, and the entire oil and gas industry of Russia. In early March, although 143 out of 191 countries in the U.N. General Assembly called on Russia to end the war, Moscow did not relent. As Russia imposed counter-sanctions on Ukraine, its exports and imports were disrupted. The suspension of Ukrainian food exports led to a significant global shortage. Meanwhile, the oil sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia sent shockwaves through the international oil market. All of this was enough to destabilize global economies.

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Although Ukraine achieved limited and sporadic victories over Russian forces with the U.S.-E.U. assistance, Russia’s dominance persisted. Today, 20 percent of Ukrainian territory remains under Russian control. According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Russian side has suffered 1.2 million casualties, including deaths, injuries, and missing persons, with 325,000 soldiers killed by December 2025. On the Ukrainian side, while President Zelenskyy stated that 55,000 people died on the Ukrainian side, CSIS estimates the figure at 140,000. In a sense, Ukraine takes solace in the belief that Russia may be unable to sustain the war given such extensive human losses.

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However, of Ukraine’s population of about 40 million, five million are living under Russian occupation. Millions of others have migrated to other countries, mostly in Europe. It is also believed that 19,000 children were abducted, though Ukraine officially states the number is just over 1,200. Due to the damage sustained by Ukraine’s economic sector, an estimated $550 billion will be required for its reconstruction. This is three times the country’s projected GDP for 2025. Due to the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and E.U. nations, Russia’s growth rate last year fell to just one percent. In terms of GDP growth, Ukraine has suffered the most significant blow; in 2022, instead of growth, its GDP contracted by 30 percent. This was partially recovered, reaching a two percent growth rate by 2025. All this is in addition to the hardships endured by the people. Prices of essential commodities, including food, have surged. In Russia’s case, inflation has climbed to alarming levels. Since 2022, Ukraine has been allocating more than half of its budget to its military, while Russia is estimated to have spent 30 percent. Consequently, Ukraine’s budget allocations for basic necessities such as education, healthcare, and social security have taken a beating accordingly. For Russia, however, the strain has not been as severe.

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While people are exhausted by the hardships of war, the path to peace depends on how deeply the rulers feel the weight of that agony. Many observers believe that in Russia’s case, the war has dragged on this long solely due to the stubbornness of one individual: Putin. Russia’s insistence that the NATO military alliance should not have a new member at its doorstep was only one of the war’s objectives. However, Finland’s membership in 2023 has escalated the issue to a new level. Russia’s position is that any peace proposal is acceptable only if it can retain the captured Ukraine territories – Crimea, seized from Ukraine in 2014, and Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, occupied during the 2022 war. Russia also contends that the people of Crimea expressed their desire to join Russia through a referendum in 2014, though there is significant dispute over whether that referendum was truly free and fair. Even with full support from the U.S. and the E.U., Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily only through further intense combat. Only massive losses on the Russian side might compel Putin to reconsider his position. Mediation efforts led by Joe Biden and Donald Trump have stalled at these obstacles. The crisis the world now faces is that only force of circumstances emerging at the end of these confrontations will determine the war’s ultimate outcome.