The guns have fallen silent—but can the US-Iran MoU survive?
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On June 17, 2026, representatives of the warring states signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) ending hostilities and providing for a 60-day period during which the details can be negotiated.
The MoU states that the Strait of Hormuz will open to all traffic immediately. There is to be a USD 300 billion fund for the reconstruction of Iran, but there is no explanation of who will provide the funds. Iran has reaffirmed its decades-old policy that it shall never seek to acquire a nuclear weapon.
The Iranians ensured that a clause in the MoU states that the ceasefire also applies to Lebanon. However, Israel is not a party to the MoU. Israel may persist in attacking targets in Lebanon. If it does so, then perhaps Iran will strike back in defence of its Hizbollah allies in Lebanon.
Tel Aviv has been open in denouncing the MoU. Its aims have not been achieved. There is now a rift between Israel and the United States. For the first time, President Trump has publicly castigated the Prime Minister of Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu talked Trump into this war and guaranteed him a quick and almost cost-free victory. Netanyahu overpromised and underdelivered. He found a US president willing to join Israel in a war against Iran—something he had wanted for 40 years.
The Israelis might try to provoke Iran into ending the MoU. But if they do, they cannot be sure that the United States will help them out. Therefore, they may not risk it.
Tehran hailed the MoU as a victory. It is hard to quibble with that assessment. Regime change was the stated aim of the United States and Israel. The Iranian Government remains in place, and there is no indication that it intends to soften its policies.
Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz has been demonstrated. The Iranians can threaten to close it again and send global energy markets reeling. Even if they do not impede a single ship in future, merely issuing such a threat would affect energy prices.
The Iranians have suffered badly, with several thousand dead, their navy having been sent to Davy Jones’ Locker, their air force decimated, and several top military commanders killed. The Iranian economy is in tatters. The country is battered but unbowed.
That said, the United States had no clear way out of this war. No one seriously suggested a ground invasion of mainland Iran. The United States publicly discussed seizing Kharg Island but ultimately backed away from the idea.
The American public was always against this war. In the end, the House of Representatives voted against it as well, because enough Republicans turned against Donald Trump on the Iran issue.