EU enlargement: The road ahead for candidate countries

Several countries have EU candidate member status. Being a candidate member is a preliminary stage before admission to full membership. There is no time limit on candidate member status. Turkey has had it since 1987, but its accession talks have been frozen since 2016 due to its alleged backsliding towards dictatorship.

Montenegro is the most likely country to be the next one upgraded to full membership. There are 27 EU member countries, and it only takes one country to veto a new country's admission. It is unlikely that any country would do so. Montenegro has only 500,000 people and is on the Adriatic Sea, between Albania, Kosovo, Croatia and Serbia. There are no significant obstacles to it joining the EU. Montenegro unilaterally adopted the euro (EUR) as its currency after 2002. Its own currency had suffered hyperinflation. Some EU sources say Montenegro will gain full membership in 2028.

For admission to full membership, a candidate country has to prove it has met criteria relating to democracy, human rights, judicial independence, fiscal probity, anti-corruption and economic stability. Montenegro has satisfied the EU on most of these parameters. Because of its small population, it is unlikely to lead to significant immigration to other EU member states. The less affluent countries in Eastern Europe had millions of people leave them and move west to seek higher salaries in the more affluent countries of Western Europe, such as France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany and Belgium.

The European Union gives every citizen of an EU member state EU citizenship. This adds to, and does not replace, national citizenship. EU citizens have the right to live and work in all the other EU countries, as well as Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Andorra. An EU citizen can be removed from another EU country if he commits a serious crime or is receiving welfare payments without making any attempt to get a job.

Albania is not far behind its neighbour Montenegro. Twenty years ago, Albania had a reputation for poverty and people trafficking. Its cities were among the most run-down in Europe. It has improved very considerably and is now an alluring beach destination. Albania is hoping to meet all the membership criteria by the end of 2027 and join the EU in 2028. This is probably overoptimistic. It has 3 million people, and there are already hundreds of thousands of Albanians in EU countries.

North Macedonia borders Albania. Twenty-five per cent of its population is ethnically Albanian. North Macedonia was part of Yugoslavia and for years was known as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia until it was finally agreed that its official designation would be "North Macedonia". That is to avoid confusion with South Macedonia, which is a region of neighbouring Greece. North Macedonia has a friendly business environment and is now very secure. Its language is almost the same as Bulgarian, and at times it was part of Bulgaria. But few North Macedonians wanted to unite with Bulgaria. North Macedonia has tied its EU application to that of Albania. Some say they should be admitted on the same day. This is unlikely to happen for several years. North Macedonia is a landlocked country and fairly mountainous. It has 2 million people.

Moldova has candidate member status. It is a former Soviet republic between Romania and Ukraine. Moldova's official language is Romanian, and its flag is similar to the Romanian flag. At times it has been part of Romania. Some Romanians and some Moldovans believe Moldova should be reunited with Romania. Romania grants citizenship to any Moldovan who wants it. Most Moldovans who claim it move to Western Europe for better-paid jobs. Russia illegally occupies a region of Moldova called Transnistria.

There are only 3 million people in Moldova. It is one of the poorest countries in Europe. There is a pro-Moscow caucus in Moldova that is campaigning vigorously against the EU. In 2025, however, a referendum showed that a majority of Moldovans wanted to join the EU.

The President of Moldova is Maia Sandu. Sandu is passionately pro-EU. She is the toast of Europe. Major EU politicians are always visiting Moldova and showering her with praise.

Moldova has problems with corruption to overcome. There are also many Russian spies there. Some EU governments are chary about admitting it to the EU. It probably will not happen until the 2030s.

Serbia is a candidate EU member. However, accession talks have slowed. The EU is unhappy about Serbia's ties with Moscow. By no means are all Serbians pro-EU. Many want Montenegro and Kosovo—both formerly part of Serbia—back.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is also an EU candidate member. This mountainous country has a tiny coastline. It is home to three ethno-religious communities who speak mutually intelligible languages: Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs. Bosnia and Herzegovina is not rich, and its political situation is too complex to allow smooth integration.

Ukraine was given candidate member status in 2022. It was a rebuke to Russia after the war started. Putin pretended not to care, saying Ukraine is an independent country. His whole mission has been to destroy that independence. Zelensky said the EU should admit Ukraine immediately because then Russia would already have failed in one of its objectives in the war. If Ukraine joined the EU, then the EU would be obliged to help Ukraine defend itself—not by sending troops, but by sending arms and money. The EU is already doing this, but not enough.

There are serious problems with corruption in Ukraine. Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe. Some people in the EU do not want Ukraine to join for various reasons. They say it will lead to conflict with Russia. Hungary and Slovakia are deeply sceptical about Ukraine. If Ukraine gains full membership, it will probably not be for another 20 years.

Georgia's accession status was frozen last year. It is a mountainous nation of 5 million people in the Caucasus Mountains, on the Black Sea. It is a former Soviet republic, and the government ushered into office last year is pro-Moscow. The EU has accused it of downgrading democracy.

There are EU citizens who oppose expansion. They argue that the EU is megalomaniacal. Bigger is not always better. There is no need to expand. The EU has enough problems without taking in more problematic countries. It is better to consolidate than to risk what the EU has achieved for the sake of gaining more territory. More EU countries mean more immigration, and this is controversial.

There is even talk of Canada applying for EU membership. It is not on the European continent, but the same is said about Turkey. If Canada were to join, the EU could rename itself the Euro-Atlantic Union. Morocco tried to obtain candidate status in the 1980s and was immediately rebuffed. There are those who say this decision could be revisited.