Lessons from a miserable defeat
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In the Kerala Legislative Assembly elections, the United Democratic Front has crossed the mark of a hundred-seat majority and come to power after defeating the Left Democratic Front, which had been in office for two consecutive terms. The UDF, led by Opposition Leader V. D. Satheesan, had entered the fray with a target of securing more than one hundred seats in the 140-member Assembly and has now achieved an unprecedented victory. The LDF, which until the previous day had been asserting that Chief Minister Pinarayi would secure a third consecutive term, has been swept away by a strong anti-incumbency wave. Although leaders of the CPI(M), which led the ruling alliance, along with aligned media outlets and social media commentators, had firmly denied the visible presence of anti-government sentiment, independent observers and sections of the media had assessed that the strong public mood against the Left government—evident in earlier Assembly by-elections, as well as in Parliamentary and local body elections—would be reflected in this election.
The Pinarayi Vijayan government, having completed two terms, had provoked strong public resentment. Perhaps recognising this, in its final hours, the government made a series of announcements—on pensions, welfare funds, and service-related benefits—offering them in a generous manner. In a style reminiscent of the Sangh Parivar at the Centre, and akin to Narendra Modi (and, in some respects, to communist autocrats), the Chief Minister was projected across the state on massive hoardings as the sole authority, almost like an idol. The people of Kerala, dismissing this as a mockery of the state’s political awareness, have delivered a fitting reply to the question of arrogance—“Is there anyone else?”—by handing the UDF a massive mandate. A closer look at the victory margins of even the winning Left Front candidates reveals the extent of public anger against the government. The fact that not only the general public but even party workers reject a party that goes astray is evident from the spectacular “revenge victories” of leaders who, having abandoned the CPI(M), which they say had been ruined by corruption, arrogance, and nepotism, contested with the support of the United Democratic Front—G. Sudhakaran from Ambalappuzha, T. K. Govindan from Taliparamba, and E. Kunjikrishnan from Payyannur.
The first Left Democratic Front government under the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan entered its second term not so much on the basis of administrative achievements as on the advantage gained during the COVID-19 crisis period. Although the opposition had strongly raised allegations of corruption and mismanagement against the Left government, the additional visibility and authority it acquired during the pandemic—amid prolonged social restrictions—enabled the LDF to secure a relatively easy return to power. Thus, for the first time in Kerala, the CPI(M)-led alliance, under Pinarayi Vijayan, secured a second consecutive term, during which a marked transformation was witnessed. In governance and politics, by excluding experienced hands and inducting a new generation into the cabinet, Pinarayi Vijayan concentrated power in the Chief Minister’s office in a manner often associated with centralised, authoritarian styles of leadership. The failures of this system were borne by the people in the form of administrative setbacks. Even in sectors where Kerala had been projected as a “model,” the administration faltered, with ministers themselves acknowledging instances of systemic failure. Yet, even then, the party leadership and cadre, instead of making the public aware of these shortcomings, continued to praise those in power, thereby misrepresenting the situation. However, whenever anti-incumbency sentiment emerged, the people expressed it clearly through their votes. Instead of learning from these signals and correcting course, the CPI(M) and the Left Front appear to have drawn flawed conclusions from their setbacks.
One such conclusion was the CPI(M)’s confrontation with minority political currents. In the 2019 Parliamentary elections, minority communities that had supported the INDIA alliance extended their backing in Kerala to the Congress-led front with the aim of strengthening their parliamentary representation. Instead of analysing the reasons behind this shift, the CPI(M) chose to position Muslim and other minority political expressions as adversarial and engaged in what was widely described as a witch-hunt. At a time when the Bharatiya Janata Party-promoted politics of anti-Muslim hostility was spreading, including in Kerala, this regressive stance adopted by the CPI(M) and the Left Front—targeting even smaller organisations such as Jamaat-e-Islami and the Indian Union Muslim League—in effect served to ease the path for the Sangh Parivar. It should not be overlooked that the Bharatiya Janata Party was able to secure control of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation in local body elections and has now gone on to win three constituencies in the capital district’s Assembly elections, partly owing to this political advantage.
Over the past ten years, this devastating defeat also represents a strong blow delivered by a secular and humanistic Kerala against the anti-people politics of the Left Front, which, by facilitating and lending support to the promoters of hate politics, has weakened the state’s social fabric through dangerous political practices. The State Secretary of the CPI(M), M. V. Govindan, has stated that the party will study the reasons for the defeat and make the necessary corrections, which is to be welcomed. If the Left Front recognises this as a verdict delivered by the people against a Communist Party that has drifted away from Leftist principles and has openly displayed helplessness before the Sangh Parivar government at the Centre, and if it attempts to regain its former strength, it would be beneficial both for the Left and for Kerala—especially in a context where the Bharatiya Janata Party has grown from zero to three seats.
In light of the results in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the UDF, which has secured a substantial majority, also bears the responsibility of understanding the present political complexities and responding with appropriate action. Its remarkable victory constitutes an endorsement of the political positions and policies advanced by the Opposition Leader under the UDF’s leadership. Kerala now expects from the UDF a government capable of translating this public sentiment into meaningful governance. After a decade out of power, there is reason to expect that it will return better prepared, having done its groundwork thoroughly, and that it will not disappoint.
