Iran regime change unlikely even after military assault, says US intelligence assessment
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A classified US intelligence assessment has concluded that Iran’s ruling system is unlikely to collapse even under a large-scale military assault, according to a report by the National Intelligence Council cited by The Washington Post.
The report, completed a week before the current US-Israel military campaign began, outlines several reasons for the resilience of Iran’s political structure.
It found that the Iranian regime has established protocols to ensure continuity of power even if senior leaders are killed. The assessment also said it was unlikely that Iran’s fragmented opposition groups would be able to seize control of the country.
Intelligence officials also believe a mass uprising against the government is improbable despite ongoing bombardment and internal political tensions, according to the report.
Experts say the assessment reflects a long-standing understanding of Iran’s political system.
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the analysis appears to be a deeply informed evaluation of the institutions and processes that have developed within the Iranian system over many years.
The report has not considered some other potential scenarios, such as deploying US troops into Iran or supporting Kurdish groups to trigger a rebellion.
The findings raise questions about US President Donald Trump’s plan to remove Iran’s leadership. The White House has said the military campaign, called Operation Epic Fury, aims to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, dismantle its naval power, stop it from arming proxy groups, and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Trump has also said he should have a role in approving Iran’s next supreme leader following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian authorities later announced the formation of a three-member transitional council to manage state affairs.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected the idea of foreign involvement in selecting the country’s leadership, saying the future of Iran would be determined only by its people.
Despite scepticism within the intelligence community about forced regime change, the United States and Israel have continued their air campaign against Iranian targets.