Exit polls predict UDF return, setback for Vijayan in Kerala
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Thiruvananthapuram: A broad convergence of exit poll projections released on Wednesday indicates that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to return to power in Kerala after a decade in opposition, potentially ending the ten-year rule of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
Most surveys suggest that the UDF is poised to cross the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The CNN–News18 exit poll projects the alliance winning between 70 and 80 seats, while People’s Pulse estimates a stronger performance of 75 to 85 seats.
Other agencies, including PMARQ and Matrize, also indicate a consistent UDF lead, reinforcing the trend seen across projections.
Vote share estimates further underline this advantage. Axis My India projects the UDF securing around 44 per cent of the vote, compared with 39 per cent for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), 14 per cent for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and about 3 per cent for others.
Surveys by Times Now-JVC, CNN Vote Vibe and PMARQ also point to a UDF lead of roughly five percentage points, suggesting a decisive swing in voter preference.
Detailed projections show CNN–News18 estimating 70–80 seats for the UDF, 58–68 for the LDF, and 0–4 for the NDA. PMARQ projects 71–79 seats for the UDF, 62–69 for the LDF, and 1–4 for the NDA. Matrize gives the UDF 70–75 seats, the LDF 60–65, and the NDA 3–5, while People’s Pulse forecasts 75–85 seats for the UDF, 55–65 for the LDF, and 0–3 for the NDA.
Soon after polling concluded on April 9, the ruling LDF— which held 99 seats in the outgoing Assembly—had expressed confidence that its governance record and welfare measures would ensure its return to power, even indicating that a narrow majority would suffice.
In contrast, the UDF has claimed that anti-incumbency sentiment and a united campaign have translated into a clear mandate. Some leaders have asserted that the alliance could surpass 85 seats and even approach the 90 mark if the trend strengthens.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, while not expected to make significant gains, remains hopeful of improving its tally, particularly in constituencies witnessing triangular contests.
The exit polls were released after the completion of polling phases in other states, including West Bengal, with counting scheduled for Monday. In the 2021 Assembly elections, most exit polls had accurately predicted an LDF victory, adding a note of caution to the current projections.
With a strong voter turnout recorded on April 9, Kerala now awaits the final verdict to determine whether the projected shift in power will materialise.
With IANS inputs