Undersea volcano near Oregon coast likely to erupt by 2025: scientists

Researchers monitoring Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located approximately 470 kilometers off the Oregon coast, predict it could erupt as early as 2025.

Indicators such as ground deformation, increased seismic activity, and magma build-up beneath the surface have led to this forecast, marking a rare instance of precise eruption prediction in volcanic science.

Axial Seamount, one of the most closely studied underwater volcanoes in the world, has been the focus of intense monitoring.

A study presented at the American Geophysical Union meeting, titled Axial Seamount Has Suddenly Woken Up! An Update on the Latest Inflation and Seismic Data and a New Eruption Forecast, highlights key observations. Instruments placed on the seafloor provide continuous real-time data, revealing patterns of surface swelling and earthquake swarms reminiscent of activity seen before the volcano’s 2015 eruption.

Scientists are utilising artificial intelligence to analyse seismic data from Axial Seamount’s previous eruptions. This technology has detected unique patterns linked to magma movement, offering improved accuracy in eruption forecasts. Researchers believe the seamount provides a valuable testing ground for these advanced models, which could revolutionise volcanic monitoring worldwide.

While Axial Seamount itself poses minimal risk to human populations, the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai - which triggered a Pacific-wide tsunami - serves as a reminder of the potential dangers posed by submarine volcanoes. Enhanced forecasting techniques could play a vital role in providing timely warnings to at-risk coastal communities.