Falling fertility to steady India’s population at under 2 billion by 2080
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Kolkata: India’s population is projected to stabilise around 2080 at about 1.8–1.9 billion people, driven by a sharp fall in the total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.9, which is now below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP). IASP general secretary Anil Chandran said India’s TFR has dropped steeply from 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9 today, marking a rapid demographic transition marked by fewer births and slower population growth.
Chandran said India’s population is expected to peak at around 1.8–1.9 billion by 2080, after which growth is likely to flatten, with all projections indicating that it will remain below 2 billion. He attributed the decline in fertility to rising development and education levels, particularly higher female literacy, which has reshaped decisions on marriage and childbearing and led to smaller families.
Greater awareness and use of contraception and wider access to birth control have further pushed fertility down, as couples exercise more control over the timing and number of children. Later marriages and expanding economic opportunities, especially for women in the workforce, are also significantly influencing reproductive choices, with TFR still above 3 among illiterate groups but down to about 1.5–1.8 among the educated.
Chandran cited Kerala as an early example, noting that the state reached replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989 and now has a TFR of around 1.5, while West Bengal’s TFR has fallen to about 1.3, among the lowest in the country and well below replacement level. West Bengal now ranks alongside Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi on fertility indicators, with the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR nationally, reflecting an advanced stage of demographic transition.
Even as birth rates fall, life expectancy is rising due to better healthcare, leading to a growing elderly population and new pressures around old-age care in a context of high youth migration for work. Chandran said options such as elderly day-care centres are gaining attention, and noted that IASP — a body of about 1,100 demographers and population scientists set up in 1971 — regularly debates these emerging challenges with support from organisations such as UNFPA, the Population Council and the Population Foundation of India.
(Inputs from PTI)