Governor's decision crucial

The role of the state governor is becoming crucial in the Karnataka scenario. Although the post of governors is largely seen as ornamental, and a quiet shelter for retired – or to-be-retired – politicians, he being bound in most decisions to go by the cabinet will, this is one of the rare occasions when a governor has to use his discretion.

The question now is: should he invite the leader of the party that has won the maximum seats, or an alliance of multiple parties that claims absolute majority? That is the call of the governor that can turn the political tide of the country even.

JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy can claim absolute majority on the strength of Congress support. But the Governor is under no binding to take it at its face value. The practice hitherto in other states earlier has been to present the MLA's who affirm such support in person, or to produce their signature pledging support. JD(S) has not done either (so far) before the governor. It is not clear what type of communication, and how comprehensive, has been made by the JD(S) leader to the governor Vajubhai Vala. In such situation the governor may take the position that it is not clear if they will stick to their party.

The alliance now being made between Congress and JD(S) is post-poll, not pre-poll. On this basis, the governor may choose to invite the largest party's leader, based on an assurance that he can prove the majority in the house. Whether to give heed to this, and how long a time to allow for that, is again the governor's call. From past precedents, the longer the time allowed the greater the chances for maneuvering and horse-trading of small pareties or MLA's, not only independent ones but even splinter groups or those who latch on to the monetary bait thrown by the big party.

In the case of Karnataka, the prospects of the BJP are not that bright. The elections were fought and won by only three parties, and three seats were won by independents. The required number of seats for majority is 112 while the BJP has won just 104 seats. To reach the magic number, three independents will not suffice, and it will need dissidents from Congress of JD(S) which can come only via defection or horse-trading. The governor may have to take this factor into account.

There is also the legal angle to the situation. If any MLA changes party, after having won on a party symbol, that will attract anti-defection law by which they will become disqualified. Therefore, if the governor, with the knowledge of this invites the largest party ignoring the other claims, he will have to factor in this scenario. But there have been past instances of MLA's resigning and then re-contesting based on the new party equations.

However, such re-contesting is fraught with risks for BJP in the current picture. In the light of the newly forged alliance, Congress and JD(S) will contest any by-poll together whereby the BJP stands a greater chance of losing. And for such a sacrifice, 8 to 10 MLA's may not be ready. Even with the dangled temptation of such two birds of ministership, MLA's are likely to prefer the one bird of being MLA. Therefore, it remains to be seen how far BJP can rope in such willing renegades and with what lure. All said, the factors are all highly fluid.