Omicron-led third Covid wave may peak by Jan end with 10 lakh daily cases: New model

New Delhi: The researchers at the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute (IISc-ISI) on Friday claimed that the country is likely to witness over 10 lakh Covid cases a day at January-end/beginning of February when the Omicron-triggered third wave meets its peak.

The study, based on Omicron transmissibility rates, was conducted by Professor Siva Athreya, Professor Rajesh Sundaresan and the team from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru.

The Omicron 'Projections January-March 2022 IISc-ISI Model' suggested that the peak of the third wave will vary for different states and the Covid-19 curve for India could start flattening by March-beginning.

"Past infection, vaccination affected by immunity waning makes a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant," said the IISc-ISI model.

The model offers data on three levels of susceptibility -- 30 per cent, 60 per cent and 100 per cent.

Under the 30 per cent susceptibility criteria, India could see 3 lakh cases per day, 6 lakh cases per day under 60 per cent susceptibility, and 10 lakh cases at 100 per cent susceptibility.

Maharashtra could be the worst hit, likely to experience over 175,000 daily cases at its peak (at 100 per cent susceptibility).

For the 11th consecutive day, the state reported a massive spike in Covid-19 infections and suspect cases whose samples have been sent for genome sequencing.

According to the model, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may witness one lakh and over 80,000 daily cases respectively, around the beginning of February.

Delhi is likely to see almost 70,000 daily cases by the end of January, according to the IISc-ISI model.

India's daily number of cases crossed the one-lakh mark as the country registered 1,17,100 new cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours.