COVID-19: Third wave likely to be milder, may peak in October

The third wave of the pandemic in India would be milder and likely to peak in October, says a study citing a mathematical model, reports Bloomberg. The research led by Mathukumali Vidyasagar and Manindra Agarwal of Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad (IIT) and IIT Kanpur says that the worsening of the outbreak might start during August, and daily cases would be best-case scenario less than 1,00,000 and the worst scenario around 1,50,000.

However, states struggling with high positive rates like Kerala and Maharashtra could tamper what is expected, too, Vidyasagar added.

The severe second wave

Last year's first outbreak in India sustained limited damage, and the economic and social activities resumed quickly. But the general public's quick lowering of their guard, resumption of local travel, large scale festivals etc., led to a devastating second wave. Currently, the same is repeating as infection rates reduced, which is a concern for experts. According to Bloomberg, while hospitals and crematoriums were overflowing during the second wave, the country must have sustained at least 50 lakh fatalities while the official count stood at 4,24,351.

The country has administered 470.3 million vaccine doses, but only 7.6% of the population is fully vaccinated, as per Bloomberg's vaccine tracker. This slow progress is also posed as a concern ahead of the impending third wave.

However, experts believe that the second wave has highly stimulated natural immunity of around 1.4 billion of the country's population, which could be a factor in suppressing the next wave's impact. A recent study conducted by the Indian Medical Council found that two-thirds of Indians above the age of six had been exposed to the Covid-19 virus.

Hotspots may tip the present balance

Currently, in the country, the daily case count stays around the 40,000 marks. But for the past five days, nearly half of the patients are reported from Kerala, making the state a new potential hotspot. Paul Kattuman, professor at the University of Cambridge and developer of Covid-19 tracker for India, said that the state had reported growing positive cases each day through July, as well as a few smaller north-eastern states. Meanwhile, some states showed smaller flair-ups in the month, but it lessened quickly, keeping the overall count in the country in a steady state, he added.

But Kattuman warned that if the infection rate increases in few large states, the current balance might be lost, and cases will increase in the country. He said a slow burn could be expected lasting till vaccination coverage is sufficiently high to induce herd immunity.

Experts suggest surveillance, pace up vaccination

Though the next wave is predicted smaller than the second wave, which peaked at 4,00,000 plus cases, the researchers underscore the need for acceleration of vaccination campaign, deployment of surveillance methods to trace emerging hotspots and constant vigilance through genome sequencing as the potential for the birth of new variants is alive.

Ram Vishwakarma, an adviser at India's Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, suggests that public health authorities need to conduct air and sewage water surveillance to detect clusters across urban neighbourhoods. He had said at a conference that sewage water surveillance is the first indication that we start getting from a particular area. Public health measures should be stepped up, and past mistakes should be avoided to save lives and livelihoods in India during the next wave. The current period is critical as the next wave is imminent, he opined.

The Union Government advised that we should be prepared for further outbreaks, and future waves won't make a similar impact on the economy as the previous ones.