IMF warns Iran war could trigger severe global human impact

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the war in Iran could have severe human consequences far beyond the Middle East, particularly for energy-importing and vulnerable economies.

IMF economists said the conflict is already affecting countries in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, which could face some of the worst impacts as the crisis continues. Rising energy, food, and fertiliser costs are placing a growing strain on these regions.

Abebe Selassie, IMF Director for Africa, said oil-importing countries, especially fragile and low-income states, are facing worsening trade balances, higher living costs, and limited capacity to absorb further shocks. “The human consequences are almost certain to be severe,” he said.

The situation has been exacerbated by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes. While higher prices have benefited some exporters such as Nigeria and Algeria, import-dependent nations are facing mounting pressure.

The IMF estimates that up to 20 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa could be pushed toward hunger due to rising food and transport costs. Countries in the Sahel region are particularly vulnerable, where poverty levels are already high, and access to affordable fertiliser remains limited.

The crisis is unfolding at a time when international aid is declining, further constraining governments that rely on external support for healthcare and food assistance.

In the Asia-Pacific, IMF officials warned that economies heavily dependent on energy imports, including small island nations, face heightened risks due to high fuel costs and shipping delays. Some countries in the region spend around 10 percent of their GDP on oil and gas, underscoring their exposure.

In the Middle East, the IMF said the conflict has led to one of the sharpest six-month downgrades in regional growth projections since the 2008 global financial crisis. Rising interest rates are also increasing borrowing costs for already strained economies.

Food insecurity remains a major concern, particularly in countries such as Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia, where food imports account for a large share of total consumption and a significant portion of the population is already affected.

IMF officials have urged governments to adopt targeted and temporary measures to manage the crisis without placing further strain on public finances.