‘Super El Niño’ could cause 451,000 excess heat deaths globally, study says

Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could result in up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide over the six months through February 2027, including nearly 16,000 in India, according to a study by researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.

The researchers said the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44% compared with normal years, Reuters reported.

The death toll could increase further if the El Niño event extends into 2027.

Northern Hemisphere regions including India and Pakistan are expected to face heightened risks during their summer months.

Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of excess heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with an estimated 31,400 fatalities. Indonesia is projected to record 19,300 deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,600.

Across the Sahel region, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, the study estimates that extreme heat could contribute to an additional 66,800 deaths during the six-month period.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are collectively projected to record about 19,400 additional deaths.

Climate Impact Lab described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from the future”, saying the event could provide an indication of temperatures that may become normal within the next few decades.

The researchers said emergency response efforts should focus on regions considered particularly vulnerable to heat-related mortality in the coming months.

El Niño has been associated with heatwaves in Europe and the US, disruptions to monsoon patterns in India, wildfires, and flooding in several parts of the world. The current El Niño event began in June and is expected to continue into next year.