Study reveals by end of century, new ecosystems to emerge from melting glaciers

New Delhi: By 2100, new ecosystems the size of Finland and Nepal might be formed as a result of melting glaciers, according to researchers. According to a study published in the journal Nature, under a high-emission scenario, the amount of glacial area outside of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets might be reduced by half as a result of human-caused climate change.

This glacial melting could cause a rapid ecological shift as novel ecosystems develop to fill emerging new habitats, they wrote.

However, analyses of this change at a global scale are lacking, they said.

Jean-Baptiste Bosson, from the Conservatory of Natural Areas of Haute-Savoie, France, and colleagues used a global glacier evolution model to examine the predicted twenty-first-century trajectory of 650,000 square kilometres (sqkm) of glaciers found outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.

Deglaciation, or glacial retreat, will continue to occur at a similar rate regardless of the climate scenario until 2040, the modelling predicted using glacier outlines, digital elevation models of subglacial terrain and climatic data.

After 2040, estimates diverged depending on the severity of emission release, the study said.

Under a high-emissions scenario, whereby global greenhouse gas emissions triple by 2075, about half of the 2020 glacier area could be lost by 2100, the researchers said.

However, this could be curbed by a low-emissions scenario, whereby net zero is achieved by 2050, which would reduce this glacial loss to approximately 22 per cent.

The model was also able to predict the characteristics of emerging ecosystems in deglaciated areas, which were classified into marine, freshwater or terrestrial categories.

It predicted glacial melting to expose an area of land between roughly the size of Nepal and Finland by the end of the century.

Further, the model classified these habitats as 78 per cent terrestrial, 14 per cent marine and 8 per cent freshwater.

These areas could provide refuge for cold-adapted species displaced by warming elsewhere, the researchers said.

They said that alongside continued efforts to mitigate the further glacial decline, these new ecosystems presented a new focus for researchers as they would require resources to ensure their protection and secure their future.

With PTI inputs