US Presidential race: Ageing white supremacist vs dynamic Kamala Harris

On the first Tuesday of November, as provided for by the US Constitution, the United States shall elect its next president. The only two candidates with a remotely realistic chance are Kamala Harris and Donald J Trump.

In July the polls showed that Trump was significantly ahead of Joe Biden. The 82-year old had led the US out of coronavirus, revived the economy, written off student debt, moved towards renewable energy, protected the environment, oppressed Palestine, supported Ukraine, avoided war and withdrawn from Afghanistan.

However, the pull-out from Afghanistan led to some undignified scenes. It had shades of Saigon 1975. This was Trump’s plan! Trump struck a deal with the Taliban that the USA would withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan in 18 months in return for no more attacks on the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). When the US announced that it would withdraw its armed forces from Afghanistan all the other countries contributing to ISAF announced that they would do likewise.

The Trump campaign said that Biden was senile and therefore unfit to be president. In fairness, there was some evidence that Biden was losing his marbles. Trumpists ruthlessly rammed home this point. However, they were too effective. Biden pulled out of the race.

The surprising thing is how the Democrats rallied around Vice President Harris. For three and a half years people said that even if Biden did not seek a second term the Democrats could not have Miss Harris as their candidate. Biden’s approval ratings were bad but hers were abysmal.

It is astonishing that when Kamala Harris announced she was seeking the nomination of her party she climbed and climbed in the opinion polls. It is illogical: there are people who believe she is a bad vice-president but would make a fine president.

Trump’s mental health has been terrible for many years. Look at videos of him from the 1990s. He is a different person. Back then he was in command of himself. He is now unmoored from reality. He is a stranger to reason. Donald John Trump has reverted to toddlerhood with his frequent temper tantrums. He is irascible, insane, infantile and imbecilic. He has been proven to have told over 20,000 lies on the record since 2017.

Now that Kamala Harris is the Democrats’ standard bearer it is the Republican candidate (Trump) who is the old one. He is 19 years her senior.

The dark triad of personality traits that afflicts Trump will continue. His malevolence, mendacity and shamelessness will aggravate if that is possible.

Trump’s vice-presidential pick of J D Vance seemed inspired. He is half Trump’s age. He seemed to balance his ticket by selecting someone who was fairly youthful. Trump is a draft dodger: his father bribed a doctor to misdiagnose Trump with bone spurs in his feet to exempt him from military service.

Vance by contrast volunteered for the military and saw combat. Vance came from a dysfunctional working class family in the Appalachians. Trump was born into a multi-millionaire family in NYC. Senator Vance attended Yale Law School whereas Trump is functionally illiterate. Trump’s educational sub normality appeals to many anti-intellectuals. Vance is married to an Indian-American and is faithful to her.

Vance wrote a Hillbilly Elegy about his childhood in a poverty-stricken broken home. This became a major film.

There is always a fillip in the polls for a candidate when the running mate is announced. But on closer inspection Vance did not turn out to be such an electoral asset.

Kamala Harris chose Governor Tim Walz for her running mate. Walz is a former schoolteacher and football coach. He was also a reservist in the US Military.

Trump speaks up for a child’s right to life. But he hedges. His rhetoric is solely due to electoral calculation. He is cynical and was once publicly pro-abortion. Leaked NDAs hint that he paid for his mistresses to murder his own children.

The second assassination attempt on Trump seems to have made no impact on the polls. Most people have made up their minds. Trump lost the debates. Harris was able to goad him. He failed to use his good attack lines on illegal immigration.

Trump is a convicted criminal. He was found guilty of 34 crimes. He may yet go to prison even as president. It is sickening that the Republicans call themselves the party of law and order and choose a felon as their candidate. He was also found in court to have sexually abused a woman and to have perjured himself.

The opinion polls show that Harris is ahead by an average of 4%. There is a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. But even if the polls overrate the Democrats by that maximum margin of error, then she is still ahead.

The polls tend to overrate the Democrats because Democrat supporters are less likely to vote than Republicans. Democratic voters on average are younger than Republicans. The younger people are less likely to vote than older ones. Republican inclined people are less likely than Democrats to respond to opinion polls. This is because of their lower social trust.

There are under 8 weeks less to go. Harris is in the lead, but she could go up or down. The polls tend to tighten towards election day.

The Electoral College mechanism

It is vital to note that it is not the people who elect the president it is the Electoral College. This college is not a place of education.

Each state is allotted a number of electoral votes equal to the size of its congressional delegation. Each state has two senators regardless of population. Each state has at least one representative in the House of Representatives. States can have more representatives in accordance with their population.

48 out of the 50 states gives all their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the most votes in that state. The remaining two states divide their electoral votes proportionally to the votes won by the candidates.

Washington DC has 3 electoral votes which is the same as the smallest state by population. Note that Washington DC is not a state! It is not Washington State!

There are 538 votes in the electoral college. Therefore 270 are needed to win.

Some weeks after the presidential election the electors of the electoral college meet in the capital of their state and cast their votes. The electors are not voting out of personal preference. They are voting the way the people of the state decided. If they are faithless electors and go against the wishes of the people of the state, they may be imprisoned.

The United States Congress certifies the result of the election. This was always a mere formality. But in 2020 Trump incited a crowd to stop doing so. He spread bogus rumours of the election being stolen. Rioters then caused 5 deaths in the US Capitol as they tried to storm the building and murder politicians. They wanted to lynch Vice-President Pence. Pence valiantly recognised that he and President Trump had lost the election.

The Electoral College therefore leans towards the least populous states which are mostly Republican voting. It is possible to win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. This happened in 2000 and 2016.

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) won the popular vote by 2% or 3 million votes. She lost the Electoral College because of the more efficient distribution of votes.

Biden won the election by 4.5 percentage points last time. That was over 7 million votes.

The Democrats have won the popular vote 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections. It is highly probable that they will win again.

There is peace and a growing economy. This tends to favour the party that holds the White House. Harris’ endorsement of ultra violence against children is popular with the bigoted majority.

The Democrats have faced difficulties. Harris knew that Biden was not compos mentis and kept lying about it. The Democrats aided and abetted Israel’s crimes against humanity in Gaza. Harris is herself directly responsible for the massacre of civilians in Palestine. Having defended these crimes and having agreed to provide weapons knowing they were used for murder she is as guilty as Netanyahu.

There are some Democrats who have some common humanity. Some are Muslims. They are aghast at the crimes against humanity committed by Israel.

There are Zionists who control the Democrats. Most of them are Gentiles. They are driven by odium towards Palestinians.

Harris is in a bind. The left of her party cares about human rights in Gaza. She did not want to lose too many of them. But speaking up for human rights risked the wrath of the Zionist lobby.

The Republicans face no such quandary on Palestine. Most Republicans are ignorant and malicious when it comes to Palestine. Many are Christian religious maniacs and viciously Zionist. They believe that all atrocities are good – if committed by Israel.

The election will come down to the swing states. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania could all go either way. Some of these states were won by under 1% of the vote in 2020. All of them are on a knife edge. Harris will win some but not all of these.

The demographics are on the side of the Democrats. 55% of whites vote Republican. But white numbers are declining in real and absolute terms. 60% of non-whites vote Democrat. Non-white people are growing in number.

K. Harris being half black will motivate more African-Americans to vote. The same with Asians her being half Indian. Some women who do not usually vote Democrat will vote for her because they want to see a female president. But surprisingly some men and women openly say they oppose having a woman in the Oval Office.

Allan Lichtman is a professor who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. Almost uniquely he forecast that Trump would win in 2016. He has predicted that Harris shall win in 2024.

I give Harris a 55% chance of winning.

Electoral college: 290 votes

North Carolina. Trump; Georgia. Harris; Florida. Trump; Michigan. Harris; Pennsylvania. Harris; Arizona. Harris; Nevada. Harris; Minnesota. Harris; Wisconsin. Trump; New Hampshire. Harris.

The author is a political analyst from the UK. Views are his personal.