Disqualification: a bane or boon for Rahul Gandhi and Congress?

Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala has suddenly erupted onto the national political landscape with its MP, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s lightening disqualification following a conviction by a Surat court in relation to a flimsy criminal defamation case. No wonder, the Congress in Wayanad is observing the day today as a “black day” to protest the “hasty and politically motivated” expulsion of its MP.

But it’s not only Wayanad but the political temperature in the entire country suddenly soared on March 24, 2023, which started off with hectic political activity and shocking developments.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who has been attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi continuously for the last few weeks, for what he calls his unholy alliance with businessman Gautam Adani, was dismissed from Lok Sabha on March 24, 2023, and his Wayanad seat was declared vacant, a day after he was convicted for two years in a defamation case by a Surat court.

The case, now known as the “Modi surname case”, related to his speech during campaigning for the 2019 Lok Sabha election in which he had mockingly wondered aloud why thieves like Nirav Modi and Lalit Modi, who had robbed the country of thousands of crores of rupees and fled, indeed had the same Modi surname as the prime minister. Though the speech was made in Kolar, Karnataka, the case was filed by a BJP MLA from Gujarat, Purnesh Modi in Surat, saying he had defamed the entire Modi community.

But it had become quite obvious for political observers that a denouement like this could happen ever since February 7, 2023, when Rahul Gandhi, in his speech in Lok Sabha, had once again questioned the prime minister about his links with businessman Gautam Adani who has been accused of financial corruption worth lakh of crores of public money. As most of his speech was expunged from Lok Sabha records, the Congress cried murder of democracy because his right to free speech was being throttled.

A week later, Rahul Gandhi spoke at Cambridge University in London where he talked about the threats to democratic institutions in India, and how the BJP government itself was weakening democracy in the country. This resulted in the BJP leaders going off the handle, both inside and outside Parliament, demanding Rahul either tender an apology or be disqualified from Lok Sabha.

For the last one week, the country watched the unprecedented spectacle of the ruling party (the BJP) itself stalling the proceedings in Parliament to demand an apology from Rahul Gandhi on the flimsy ground that he had “defamed” the nation on foreign soil. The pressure tactics and intimidation followed with a heavy posse of Delhi police landing at his residence on March 19, 2023, to demand details of some women who had complained to him during his Bharat Jodo Yatra of being the victims of sexual assault. Rahul Gandhi had spoken about these women during his speech in Srinagar on January 30, 2023, on the occasion of the yatra’s culmination.

With Rahul Gandhi now disqualified, the question being asked is whether this would puncture the efforts of opposition parties who are trying to forge a joint front against the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha election. But going by the statements given by opposition leaders so far, it is clear that though the disqualification might seem like a huge setback to the Congress party at the moment, it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise because it has brought together even those parties which so far keeping a distance from the Congress party.

Aam Aadmi Party, for example, which had so far shied away from joining forces with Congress in Parliament, has now come out openly in support of Rahul Gandhi. Arvind Kejriwal, AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister attacking prime minister Narendra Modi said the way democracy is being attacked, now 130 crore people of the country will have to come forward and fight, irrespective of the fact which party comes to power.

Telangana Rashtra Samiti leader, K C Rao, who too has kept a distance from Congress so far, described this as a “black day” for democracy saying “Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification is the height of Narendra Modi’s arrogance and dictatorship... this is not the time for conflicts between parties. All democrats should openly condemn the misdeeds of the BJP government to safeguard the democracy and constitutional values in the country.”

The most aggressive comments, however, have come from the Trinamool Congress, whose leader Mamata Banerjee, till the other day, was busy planning for the third front and advising Congress to decide for itself what its role could be. Its leader Derek O’Brien said everyone knew the BJP was desperate to silence the voice of the opposition parties but “this was the lowest of the lows since 1950…. Shame on BJP.”

Mohua Moitra, another TMC leader described it as “the last nail in the coffin of democracy.” West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, who only two days ago had described Rahul Gandhi as the: biggest TRP for BJP” came out in support saying ‘today we have witnessed a new low for our constitutional democracy.” She further said in PM Modi’s new India opposition leaders have become the prime targets of the BJP. “While BJP leaders with criminal antecedents are inducted into the cabinet, opposition leaders are disqualified for their speeches.”

Parties like the RJD, NCP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav), DMK, JMM and JD(U), which already have been part of the Congress-led offensive on Adani and demanding a JPC, have all strongly supported Rahul Gandhi. Their MPs participated along with Congress MPs in a protest march towards Vijay Chowk where they were arrested and taken to Kingsway Camp where they were released in the evening.

Political observers see a blessing in disguise for the Congress party in the events unfolding through the day because it has automatically emerged as the fulcrum of opposition unity. This may or may not result in some immediate announcement, but the willingness to come on a common platform against the BJP has undoubtedly emerged.

As for Rahul Gandhi, observers say, he has emerged stronger despite losing his Lok sabha seat because he is being perceived as someone who has been speaking the truth for which he is being victimized. As Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sen leader said, “calling a thief a thief has become a crime in the country.”

The way forward for Congress, say, senior leaders, is two-pronged: both legal and political. The legal recourse would mean approaching the higher courts for relief which they are sure of getting, and the political recourse would be to go to the people and seek justice for them.

That Rahul Gandhi would be unrelenting is clear by his declaration that he would “keep fighting for India’s voice and is willing to pay any price for it.” Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge also declared that “for the sake of democracy if we have to go to jail we are ready for that too.” He also said the party would continue to demand a JPC to probe the Adani corruption.

The Congress party is likely to keep its tone shrill as is obvious by Priyanka Gandhi’s tweets in which she has directly attacked the prime minister saying he insulted her family members in Lok Sabha by mocking the Nehru surname and still no judge has given him two years’ punishment. She has reminded the prime minister that the Gandhis come from a family which has nurtured democracy with their blood and “will not be cowed down by a power-hungry and dictatorial man like him.”

Meanwhile, Congress leader Renuka Chowdhary, former union minister, who was allegedly called ‘surpanakha” by prime minister Narendra Modi in Parliament, tweeted that now she too will file a defamation case against the prime minister. “This classless megalomaniac referred to me as surpanakha on the floor of the house. I will file a defamation case against him. Let’s see how fast the courts will act now,” she tweeted.

But it's Wayanad in Kerala now which will lead the way in Congress’s fight against BJP and pave the way for the other opposition parties to come together on a common platform. The battle lines have clearly been drawn now for the 2024 Lok Sabha election and Wayanad will show the way.

If the political grapevine is to be believed, elections in Wayanad will take place in September and the outcome will indeed be a signal for the way forward. But it also goes without saying that, as Rahul Gandhi has said, it is also going to be a test case for Indian democracy at work because the credibility of our political institutions will also be at stake. With India hosting the G20 summit this year, it will also be interesting to watch how politics unfolds in India now.