Over 34.9 million at risk of chikungunya annually, with South Asia worst affected: Study
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New Delhi: More than 34.9 million people across the world are at risk of chikungunya infection every year, with South Asia, including India, Pakistan and Indonesia, along with Brazil, carrying the heaviest burden, according to a major global study.
Chikungunya is an arbovirus spread by Aedes mosquitoes, known for causing epidemics in tropical regions but increasingly posing risks in higher latitudes.
The study, conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Nagasaki University in Japan, and the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea, highlighted that the bulk of the burden is due to chronic disability. The highest impact was seen among children under 10 and adults over 60.
Using an infectious disease model based on existing evidence of transmission, researchers estimated that 14.4 million people worldwide could be at risk each year, including 5.1 million in India. Under a broader at-risk scenario, the number could rise to 34.9 million globally, with 12.1 million in India alone, the findings published in BMJ Global Health revealed.
“It's been widely thought that mosquitoes carrying chikungunya would be confined to subtropical or tropical continents, but our analysis has found that the risk extends way beyond these regions,” said Hyolim Kang, who led the study as part of her PhD at LSHTM.
The team used a random forest model to predict the force of infection and mapped chikungunya risk at high resolution, factoring in climatic, socioeconomic and ecological variables.
In the focal scenario, the global burden was estimated at 0.96 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually, with India and Brazil accounting for nearly half – 0.33 million from India and 0.11 million from Brazil. Regionally, South Asia represented the largest share (44 per cent), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (26 per cent), East Asia and the Pacific (20.5 per cent), and Sub-Saharan Africa (6.9 per cent).
Under the at-risk scenario, the global burden increased to 2.3 million DALYs annually, with India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Brazil together making up 51 per cent.
“Prevention of the spread of this disease is important for everyone. There are no specific antiviral therapies for chikungunya, and treatment relies solely on supportive care. Not only are infections extremely painful, even the healthiest of people can be infected and left with life-long disability,” Kang said.