Third wave driven by Omicron may peak in February: IIT model study

Confirming an earlier model which came to the same conclusion, a model prediction made by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (Kanpur) has posited that a third wave of Covid-19 infections will peak in India as of February 3, 2022.

A report, published in the online preprint health server MedRxiv, said: "Following the trends around the world, this project report forecasts India's third wave may start around mid-December and peak in the beginning of February." The research team, drawn from the department of mathematics and statistics, IIT-K, included Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh.

The researchers said the study "suggests the cases reach peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of Covid-19. So, the cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022".

The National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee had predicted a similar trajectory for the caseload in India, warning the population that cases would likely rise and peak in February due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.

"Third wave is likely to arrive early next year in India. It should be milder than the second wave due to a large-scale immunity present in the country now. There will definitely be a third wave. Right now, we are at around 7,500 cases per day which is sure to go up once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant," said Vidyasagar, head of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee, to ANI.