South Asia predicted to experience above-normal monsoon rainfall
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The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) announced today that above-normal rainfall is anticipated during the 2024 southwest monsoon season across most parts of South Asia.
This forecast aligns with expectations of above-normal rain in India during the monsoon season, driven by favorable La Nina conditions projected to establish by August-September.
According to SASCOF, the outlook indicates that above-normal rainfall is likely during the upcoming southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of South Asia. However, some areas in the northern, eastern, and northeastern regions may experience below-normal rainfall.
The regional climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia, with support from international experts during the 28th session of SASCOF-28 conducted online.
SASCOF noted that moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, with expectations of ENSO-neutral conditions in the first half of the monsoon season. However, La Nina conditions may emerge in the second half, influencing the likelihood of above-normal rainfall.
La Nina conditions, being the opposite of El Nino, play a significant role in driving above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, as explained by DS Pai, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Additionally, positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, favorable for the Indian monsoon, are anticipated later in the season. Moreover, the low snow cover in the northern hemisphere during winter and spring is expected to correlate with the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia.
Earlier forecasts from the IMD suggested that seasonal rainfall in India would be on the higher side of 'above-normal,' estimated at 106% of the long-period average (87 cm).