El Niño threatens India with hotter November, below-normal rainfall
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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal temperatures and significantly below-average rainfall in November, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of a potentially weak northeast monsoon.
Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to remain higher than normal across most parts of the country. The IMD has forecast that India will receive only 77 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the month.
The situation could be particularly concerning for southern peninsular India, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh and southern Karnataka. The region is likely to receive just 77 per cent of its normal November rainfall, against its long-term average of 118.7 mm.
Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, although some areas in central, northwestern and northeastern India could record normal or above-normal precipitation.
The developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are among the major factors influencing the unusual weather outlook. Global climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System, indicate that the strong El Niño conditions are likely to persist through November and December.
El Nino, which involves changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, can significantly disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns. While some regions could face drought-like conditions, others may experience intense rainfall and flooding.