BJP-led NDA poised for victory despite falling short of a majority in 2024

The 18th Lok Sabha elections, spanning seven phases from April 19 to June 1, 2024, amidst a relentless heatwave, concluded today with the counting of votes. The Election Commission of India reported that the BJP leads in 246 seats, while the Congress holds 96, the Samajwadi Party 33, the Trinamool Congress 29, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 21, and Telugu Desam Party 16. As of 4 PM, the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is leading in 293 seats, with the opposition INDIA bloc trailing at 229.

While the NDA is set to form the government, the BJP itself has not achieved a majority. In response, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah initiated discussions with TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu to secure additional support.

The elections were held in 542 constituencies, excluding Surat, Gujarat, where the BJP candidate was declared the winner by default after the Congress rival's nomination was rejected and other candidates withdrew.

In a notable victory for the Congress, Rahul Gandhi won the Rae Bareli seat by over 400,000 votes. Rae Bareli and Amethi, traditional strongholds of the Nehru-Gandhi family, saw Congress leading against BJP’s Smriti Irani in Amethi.

Defying exit polls, the opposition INDIA bloc showed strong performance in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra, making significant gains. In Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA bloc, driven by Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, leads in 43 seats, a substantial setback for the BJP.

West Bengal also saw BJP losing ground to the Trinamool Congress, which leads in 32 seats. In Maharashtra, the opposition made gains following the BJP’s split with Shiv Sena and the NCP, leading in 30 seats while the NDA trails with 17.

In contrast, the BJP maintained its stronghold in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. In Madhya Pradesh, former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan secured the Vidisha seat, and the party also won in Indore and Tikamgarh. BJP candidate Shankar Lalwani won Indore with a margin of 1,175,092 votes, and Union Minister Virendra Kumar took Tikamgarh.

Gujarat saw a breakthrough for the Congress after a decade, with Geniben Thakor winning the Banaskantha seat, defeating BJP's Rekha Chaudhari by over 30,000 votes.

The elections, marred by controversies and allegations, were held amidst voter scepticism regarding the efficiency and reliability of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Despite minimal evidence supporting claims of EVM tampering, concerns persisted about potential vulnerabilities.

The Election Commission of India faced criticism for the delayed release of polling data and neglecting issues raised about the BJP’s Islamophobic campaign, further polarizing the political climate.

The 2024 elections showcased a palpable anti-incumbency sentiment against the Modi government. Voter dissatisfaction with the government's performance was evident, despite the BJP’s significant resources and corporate backing. The anti-incumbency wave, while strong, did not entirely erode the BJP's dominance, particularly in northern states.

As the results were finalized, Prime Minister Modi planned to address the media at 7 PM, while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi scheduled a press conference at 5:30 PM. The elections, despite their contentious nature, underscored the dynamic political landscape of India, with the NDA preparing for another term in power amidst a closely contested electoral battle.