US‑Venezuela conflict unlikely to affect India’s trade: GTRI
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New Delhi: The ongoing conflict between the United States and Venezuela is expected to have a negligible impact on India’s trade with the South American nation, according to the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), which was released on Sunday.
On January 4, American forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and bringing them to the US to face multiple charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.
“India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal,” said GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava. He added that the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic or energy effect on India.
India was a significant buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, but bilateral engagement has sharply declined since 2019 due to US sanctions. These sanctions forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary penalties.
As a result, India’s trade with Venezuela is now small and declining. In FY2025, total imports from Venezuela amounted to just USD 364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for USD 255.3 million, an 81.3 per cent drop from USD 1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024. India’s exports to Venezuela were modest at USD 95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth USD 41.4 million.
“Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security,” Srivastava said.
Venezuela holds about 18 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia (around 16 per cent), Russia (5-6 per cent), and the United States (around 4 per cent).
With PTI inputs