Iran warns of severe repercussions amid US talks on Israel’s oil attack plans

As Israel expedites more attacks in Gaza, Lebanon, and a possible retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile incursions, US President Joe Biden is heard to be discussing Israel’s potential attack on Iran’s oil industry, with Iran warning of large-scale attacks on Israeli infrastructure if it faces Israeli strikes. Tehran also warned any other country assisting an Israeli attack would also make itself an Iranian target.

Biden's acknowledgment of the talks, which came in an offhand remark during a press briefing, triggered a spike in global oil prices, highlighting the potential broader economic implications of further conflict. The missile attack from Iran, which saw over 180 ballistic missiles launched toward Israel, was in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike.

With the conflict starting in Gaza over a year ago, the killing of Nasrallah has escalated the conflict to a broader regional battle. The Israeli airstrike that took Nasrallah’s life was met with swift Iranian retaliation in the form of Tuesday’s missile barrage, most of which was intercepted by Israeli defence systems, though some struck the Nevatim airbase, causing significant damage.

While Biden has expressed a general alignment with Western allies in supporting Israel’s right to retaliate, his comments did not make it clear whether the US was involved in ongoing discussions with Israeli officials regarding specific military action against Iran. This ambiguity has fuelled speculation over the potential for direct US involvement in any future strike on Iran.

The missile attack from Iran on Tuesday was one of the largest in recent years, with its impact reportedly targeting military and security facilities. Although Israel intercepted most of the projectiles, the few that hit their targets have caused alarm over the extent of Iranian capabilities and the implications for Israel’s military response.

In a parallel development, Saudi Arabia has sought to ease regional tensions, with the Saudi foreign minister announcing the country’s desire to mend relations with Iran and pursue peaceful diplomacy. This move is seen as an effort to prevent the conflict from escalating further and drawing other regional players into direct confrontation.

However, Iran has taken a hardline stance, warning that any Israeli strike on its oil industry or broader infrastructure would provoke a severe response. Iranian leaders have also made it clear that countries assisting Israel would be considered legitimate targets, further heightening fears of an all-out regional war.

Tehran, via intermediaries, has communicated its intentions to the United States, cautioning Washington that Iran’s phase of unilateral restraint has ended and signalling that further Israeli aggression would provoke an unconventional response from the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, the economic fallout from Biden’s remarks and the ongoing conflict has already been felt, as the oil market reacted swiftly, with prices jumping by nearly 5%. This surge in prices is likely to have political repercussions for Biden’s administration, particularly as Vice President Kamala Harris faces a closely contested presidential race with Donald Trump. Any sustained rise in fuel costs could further complicate the political landscape in the United States, where energy prices remain a critical concern for voters.

On the ground, Israeli forces have also been conducting operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah strongholds and continuing a prolonged assault on Gaza, where casualties have reached staggering levels. Reports suggest that more than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon, with over a million displaced by Israeli airstrikes and ground incursions into southern Lebanon.

The situation in Gaza is equally dire, as over 41,000 people have been killed in ongoing Israeli airstrikes, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian authorities. Israel maintains that it is targeting Hamas infrastructure and military assets in both Gaza and Lebanon, though international concerns over civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis continue to mount.