Ready-to-use nukes with US, Russia; Israel silent on its arsenal, India-Pak increase nukes

The nuclear landscape of South Asia is undergoing significant changes as India and Pakistan both ramp up their nuclear capabilities, while China moves far ahead with its ready-to-use warheads, which are reportedly growing.

A recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that these two neighbouring rivals are not only modernizing their nuclear arsenals but also developing advanced delivery systems capable of carrying multiple warheads.

According to SIPRI's analysis, India’s stored nuclear warheads increased to 172 in January 2024, with Pakistan close behind at 170. Both nations are actively working on new types of nuclear delivery systems, including those capable of reaching further and carrying more warheads.

A regional arms race

The SIPRI report highlights that while Pakistan remains the primary focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, India is increasingly emphasizing longer-range weapons that can target locations across China amid reports of incursions into India's border lines and its claim over Arunachal Pradesh.

"The rapid expansion and modernization of nuclear capabilities in South Asia underscore the delicate and volatile nature of the region," said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme. "Both India and Pakistan are enhancing their arsenals to ensure they maintain credible deterrence against each other and other regional powers."

According to SIPRI's analysis, China’s nuclear arsenal has seen a substantial increase from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. This marks the fastest growth among nuclear-armed states, and the report predicts continued expansion. For the first time, China is also believed to have placed some warheads on high operational alert, a status previously exclusive to Russia and the United States.

Of the estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads globally as of January 2024, approximately 9,585 are in military stockpiles ready for potential use. SIPRI notes that around 2,100 of these warheads are maintained in a state of high operational alert, with nearly all belonging to Russia or the US. However, China’s new status in this category signals a notable shift in global nuclear posturing.

Modernization and deployment

The report emphasizes that all nine nuclear-armed states — the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — are not only modernizing their arsenals but also deploying new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable systems. This includes advancements in missile technology and the capability to deploy multiple warheads on a single ballistic missile. Such advancements enable these nations to significantly increase their potential deployed warheads and enhance their ability to target more locations.

US and Russia: dominating the arsenal

Together, Russia and the US hold nearly 90 per cent of the world's nuclear weapons. Their respective military stockpiles have remained relatively stable throughout 2023, though Russia is estimated to have increased its deployed warheads by around 36. SIPRI highlights a troubling decline in transparency regarding nuclear forces in both countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This lack of openness has fueled intense debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements and the potential for miscalculation.

Israel’s nuclear ambiguity

Although Israel has not publicly acknowledged its nuclear arsenal, it is widely believed to possess a significant number of nuclear warheads. Israel's policy of ambiguity and its sophisticated delivery systems add another layer of complexity to the global nuclear equation.

Implications for South Asia

The escalating arms race among the world's leading nuclear powers creates a ripple effect, compelling regional players like India and Pakistan to bolster their own arsenals. The increasing number of warheads, coupled with advancements in delivery technology, heightens the risk of miscalculation and conflict in South Asia.

SIPRI’s report highlights that around 2,100 of the world’s deployed warheads are maintained in a state of high operational alert, with nearly all belonging to Russia or the US. For the first time, China is also believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.

Calls for diplomatic engagement

Experts argue that the expansion of nuclear capabilities in South Asia and beyond underscores the urgent need for renewed diplomatic engagement and arms control efforts. "The growing nuclear arsenals of India and Pakistan, influenced by global trends, highlight the importance of dialogue and restraint," Kristensen emphasized. "Without proactive measures, the risk of a nuclear confrontation in the region remains perilously high."