India unveils world’s most advanced weather forecasting model ahead of monsoon
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India has introduced the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS), a cutting-edge, home-grown weather prediction model with the highest resolution in the world at 6 km, aiming to significantly enhance the country’s weather forecasting capabilities.
Developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the BFS will be operational starting this monsoon season.
Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh announced the launch on Monday, noting that the BFS positions India at the forefront of global weather forecasting. “A proud marker of our rise as the world's fourth largest economy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this unique forecast system promises to supplement India's economy by saving on potential losses and simultaneously adding on potential gains," he said.
Unlike global numerical models used in Europe, the UK, and the US—which have resolutions ranging from 9 km to 14 km—the BFS delivers forecasts at an unprecedented 6 km resolution. This level of detail allows meteorologists to issue more localised and accurate predictions.
"The tropical region is a chaotic region for weather. The change in weather patterns is unpredictable and higher resolution models are required to capture the spatial changes," explained M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. He added, “Earlier, we used to issue one forecast for four villages. The BFS will enable us to issue separate forecasts for each of the four villages.”
The BFS is expected to significantly benefit key sectors including agriculture, aviation, disaster management, defence, and waterway navigation. It will also strengthen India's capabilities in monitoring cyclones, tracking monsoons, and issuing flood alerts.
The technological leap has been made possible by the installation of ‘Arka,’ a state-of-the-art supercomputer at IITM with 11.77 petaflops of processing power and 33 petabytes of storage. “The previous supercomputer 'Pratyush' used to take up to 10 hours to run the forecasting model. Arka performs the same data-crunching within four hours,” said IITM scientist Parthasarathy Mukhopadhyay.
The BFS model utilises data from a nationwide network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars, soon to be expanded to 100. This will empower the Indian Meteorological Department to issue highly localised forecasts and “nowcasts”—short-term weather predictions for the next two hours—across the country.
With coverage extending across the tropical belt from 30° South to 30° North latitudes, including the Indian subcontinent, the BFS represents a significant stride in precision forecasting and climate preparedness.