What the 2024 US presidential election holds for Indian Americans

The stage for the US presidential election is set against a backdrop of dramatic events. From the gaffes and slips of Joe Biden, raising concerns about his ability to lead as an elderly man, to a bullet grazing Donald Trump, the narrative has seen significant shifts. Joe Biden's exit and Kamala Harris's dramatic entry have further flipped the campaign narrative, setting the stage for a high-stakes showdown to decide the country's fate in four months. Meanwhile, Trump made an astonishing entry at the Republican National Convention, promising to "Make America Great Again" and announcing J.D. Vance as his running mate. As these political events progress, the upcoming election holds great significance for the vibrant Indian American community residing in the country.

The 'Land of Opportunity' founded in 1776, celebrated 248 years of its founding on July 4th. From a time when there were no clues of future Indian Americans, the country has now become home to 1.5% of Indian Americans in its total population. Recently, Indiaspora, an American non-profit, analyzed the contribution and impact of Indian Americans in five key areas: social, economic, scientific, civic, and cultural spheres. Their report, "Small Community, Big Contributions, Boundless Horizon," unveils some landmark insights. Although the study does not specifically analyze political involvement, it implies the political high ground of the community, suggesting that nurturing these areas could potentially enhance their political engagement.

Despite being a small community, Indian Americans contribute 5% of the tax revenue to the American economy. Last year, about 4.4% of public service positions were held by the community. More than 10% of doctors in the United States are Indian Americans, serving 30% of the population. The entrepreneurial spirit of the community is also evident, as they founded 11% of the 650 unicorns. In the hospitality sector, Indian Americans own 60% of the total hotels in the United States, generating $700 billion in revenue and 4 million job opportunities annually.

The rise of the Indian community to become one of the most influential voices in the US was made possible by attaining financial and social empowerment through education and professional engagement. Three-fourths of the Indian American community hold high-paying jobs. With their expanding presence in various areas of American society, the role and impact of Indian Americans in the upcoming election are crucial.

Being a four-million-strong community that encompasses nearly 1% of the total voters and 16% of Asian American voters, Indian Americans are seen as a strong bloc that can significantly influence the battleground states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada. In the last presidential election, the community lent its support to Democrats, contributing to Joe Biden's victory with a turnout rate of 71% among Asian Americans.

With a strong presence in business and tech, the community seeks more tax favors from the government. In the 2020 election, 74% were inclined to support the candidate who offers tax reductions. In 2023, the political foothold of ethnic communities developed further, with ten Indian Americans, mostly Democrats, winning local and state-level elections across various parts of the country.

For the Indian community in America, the 2024 election is set amid a variety of stirring issues. The crises of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resurgent Russia and China, and other geopolitical issues concern the community alongside other Americans. Recently, Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian American stalwart who declared his candidacy for the Republican nomination for president in 2024, identified the Russia-China military alliance as the ‘single biggest threat’ to America. He took a stand unlike Biden, who stubbornly adheres to the idea of persuading Xi Jinping to drop Putin, wanting to address gripping challenges with China by not letting Russia be associated with Xi Jinping's influence.

A prominent group of Indian American lawmakers urged India to align with the US stance on Russia to deter Chinese aggression on the Line of Actual Control. Indian Americans largely support Ukraine in the conflict, condemning Russian military intervention, but they frown at Biden’s "as long as it takes" stance and urge diplomatic circles to devise an immediate strategy to quell the war.

Indian American students in universities have participated in pro-Palestine protests, largely voicing the need for peace in war-torn Gaza, while the Democrats continue to support Israel. India maintains a good relationship with Russia but is not happy with the unfortunate events happening in Ukraine. The country has also avoided taking a definitive side in the Israel-Palestine conflict but advocates an end to war and terrorism. Indian Americans are hoping for a thriving bilateral relationship between their home country and the United States from the upcoming election.

Another tumultuous event that shook the Indian American community, which largely comprises Hindus, was the caste discrimination bill passed by the California Assembly but later vetoed by the governor. The Coalition of Hindus of North America termed the day of passing the bill as a "black day," leading to discontent among the majority upper-caste Hindus. A series of protests were organized by the privileged Hindu class and Dalit groups against and for the law, respectively. This is another social structural challenge that has emerged within the community in the most progressive land.

Growing attacks on temples and Indian students have been a rising threat, tearing at the peace of the growing community. In 2024 alone, about 11 Indian students lost their lives, raising safety concerns for expatriate students without strong community support.

Pro-Khalistani graffiti attacks on Hindu temples raise questions about the security of the community. Frequent incidents of vandalism towards houses of worship, with no leads or progress in investigations, leave the community living in fear.

Another sprawling event that worries Indian Americans is the influx of undocumented immigrants through the southern border. According to a Pew Research Center study, the number of undocumented Indians spiked from 33,000 in 1996 to 725,000 in 2021, making it the third-largest illegal immigrant population in the US. Indian Americans show little empathy towards these undocumented immigrants from India and want measures from the government to curb their entry. Biden, who initially advocated absorbing illegal migrants, has recently changed his stance due to mounting political pressure and he signed an executive order to curb unlawful border crossings. However, Trump has promised voters to carry out the largest deportation plan to eliminate all unrecognized migrants from the country.

In the last four years, Indian Americans have faced various social and political hurdles. The election is getting geared to decide who is better: the Republicans or the Democrats. There are a few aspects, like tax matters and geopolitical conflicts, where the government has acted according to Indian Americans' interests. However, growing challenges like security threats and migration issues demand more sophisticated assurances. The social scenario is not clear enough to predict which way the support of this 1% of voters will go, but the political scenario hints at the ethnic community's leanings toward Democrats. Last time, this was partly due to having Kamala Harris, of Indian origin, as the running mate. But this year, Kamala Harris is the one who will run the show for the Democrats and hold the pride of four million Indian Americans.

On the other side, Trump will also try to win the votes of the community by demonstrating his affiliation with Hindu ideology and his friendship with Modi. Usha Vance is another face of hope for Republicans to reach Indian Americans, yet the support for the party remains unchanged at 29% even after four years.

As the election approaches, the next four months promise to be an exciting, eventful period of heated political battle leading up to the final verdict. For Indian Americans, the outcome will likely hinge on which candidate can most effectively address their unique concerns and offer assurances for a secure and prosperous future.