Vietnam’s birth rate drops to historic low, raising alarms over future
text_fields
Vietnam's birth rate hit a record low in 2024, intensifying concerns about the country’s ability to sustain economic development and support its ageing population.
The fertility rate declined to 1.91 births per woman, the lowest since records began, according to Newsweek.
This marks the third consecutive year below the replacement rate of 2.1, necessary for maintaining population stability. The rate was 1.93 in 2023 and 2.01 in 2022.
Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the health ministry’s population authority, warned that Vietnam’s population of 100 million could begin to decline by mid-century if current trends persist. Projections suggest an annual population decrease of 0.04% between 2054 and 2059, potentially accelerating to 0.18%, or 200,000 fewer people annually, by 2064-2069.
Conversely, if the replacement rate is restored and maintained, annual population growth could reach 0.17%, or about 200,000 people per year, according to Pham’s statements to the Vietnam News Agency.
Vietnam’s ongoing gender imbalance of 112 male births for every 100 female births is another pressing concern, though recent data indicates slight improvement. Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong called for efforts to address this issue, as well as initiatives to enhance population quality. These include improving elderly healthcare, expanding access to reproductive health services, and strengthening communication on family planning.
The challenges are compounded by Vietnam’s rapidly ageing population. By 2049, over 20% of the population is expected to be aged 65 or older, making Vietnam a “super-aged society.” Despite robust economic growth exceeding 5% annually (except during the pandemic), the country’s demographic shift poses significant hurdles for sustaining progress.
Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen emphasized that Vietnam is studying global strategies to stabilise its fertility rate. A new population law is being drafted, with plans to present it to the National Assembly in 2025.
The proposed legislation aims to sustain replacement-level fertility through region-specific policies. Measures include encouraging women to have children before the age of 35 and removing penalties for having a third child, according to Le Thanh Dung of the Vietnam Population Authority.