COP29: critical climate summit in Azerbaijan amid global uncertainty and US election

Next week, world leaders will convene in Azerbaijan for COP29, a United Nations climate summit that comes just days after the closely-watched US election, an outcome that could heavily impact global climate policy.

Held from November 11-22 in Baku, COP29 will focus on establishing a new global funding target to support climate action in developing countries - a critical step in addressing the escalating climate crisis.

This summit arrives at a pivotal moment, as 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record, with extreme weather events - floods, heatwaves, and storms - devastating regions worldwide. As temperatures continue to rise, current international efforts are falling short of the measures needed to prevent dangerous levels of warming.

Adding to the challenges are economic and geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and a potential shift in US climate policy if former President Donald Trump, who has previously dismissed climate science, wins the election. Should Trump secure victory, it may disrupt international negotiations and hinder collective progress on climate commitments.

Li Shuo, a climate policy expert, noted that if the election results are finalized by the time COP29 begins, it could trigger a “crisis moment” for global climate cooperation. Many countries, including China, are expected to advocate for continued collaboration, regardless of the US political landscape.

As the first step toward the next wave of climate commitments due next year, COP29 will focus on financial strategies to help developing nations cope with intensifying climate impacts and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. With current pledges projected to lead to a 2.6°C rise in global temperatures by the century’s end, substantial funding and enhanced targets are crucial to keeping the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C within reach.

This year, the negotiations must expand on the $100 billion-a-year climate finance target, with wealthy countries and emerging economies like China and oil-rich Gulf nations contributing.

The UN estimates that developing countries, excluding China, will require $2.4 trillion annually by 2030 to meet climate objectives, with at least $1 trillion expected to come from international financing. Wealthy countries have suggested raising funds through new revenue sources, such as pollution taxes, a global wealth tax, and reducing fossil fuel subsidies.

The conference also highlights Azerbaijan’s significant reliance on fossil fuels, raising questions about the host country’s environmental stance, as nations pledged last year to phase out fossil fuels and triple renewable energy usage by 2030.

Rachel Cleetus from the Union of Concerned Scientists emphasized that the financing isn’t “charity” but rather an investment that can prevent costly disasters in the future. She urged for a $1 trillion funding agreement, structured as grants or low-interest loans to avoid burdening developing countries with debt, reported AFP.

Climate and trade issues have become increasingly linked, particularly in the rivalry between clean energy superpowers like the US, China, and Europe. While progress is visible in areas such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles, and energy storage, the race to lead the green economy is intensifying, with the outcome of COP29 expected to shape future climate pledges and targets.

Ultimately, the decisions made in Baku could set the tone for a more resilient, sustainable future or lead to devastating consequences if global leaders fail to act decisively.