China's birthrate hits record low; population decline accelerates

Beijing: China's population decrease has accelerated, with birthrates reaching new lows for the second consecutive year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population decreased by 2.75 million, or 0.2%, to 1.409 billion in 2023. The dip exceeded the 850,000 recorded in 2022, marking the first time the recorded population had decreased since the mass deaths of the Mao-era famines.

In 2023, total deaths increased by 6.6% to 11.1 million, the highest number since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution. In the same period, new births dropped 5.7% to 9.02 million. The birth rate was the lowest ever recorded, with 6.39 births per 1,000 people, a decrease from 6.77 births in 2022.

China has long struggled with patterns that have resulted in an ageing population, which have been fueled by previous population control efforts, including the one-child policy, and a rising unwillingness among young adults to have children. According to the UN, India had overtaken it as the world's most populated nation in 2023, the Guardian reported.

Chinese officials are concerned about the impact of this "demographic timebomb" on the economy, since mounting expenditures of aged care and financial support may not be covered by a diminishing population of working citizens. The state-sponsored Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that the pension system in its current structure will run out of money by 2035. By then, China's population over 60 years old - the national retirement age - will have risen from approximately 280 million to 400 million.

A slew of measures have failed to persuade parents to have more children, or have been inadequately administered by local governments, who are facing budget cuts after years of administering the resource-intensive zero-Covid system.

People typically mention the high expense of living in China, particularly in larger cities, as well as inadequate support for women in the workplace, as reasons for not having children. Traditional gender norms and familial expectations have also contributed.

“Though cities have released a slew of … policies to support child-bearing women to give birth, the public’s expectation is still not being met,” He Dan, director of China Population and Development Research Center, told state media outlet the Global Times.

Demographers proposed more fertility-support policy adjustments on Tuesday, according to the Global Times. Some people were also encouraged by the hope that more babies will be born in 2024 as part of a post-pandemic baby boom, or because they wanted to have children in the Chinese zodiac year of the dragon, which begins in February.

Some Chinese Weibo users reported seeing an increase in pregnancies near them, which they attributed to the zodiac year.

Others were sceptical, claiming that a single-year birth boom would make life tough for children who would eventually take China's highly demanding college admission exam.

Several conversations revealed that new policies or auspicious years will do nothing to sway their minds.