Let the numbers come out
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Reports indicate that the country is set to conduct a census after a gap of 13 years. The decennial census, which is supposed to be conducted every ten years, was indefinitely postponed in 2021 due to the COVID pandemic. It cannot be denied that certain political reasons also contributed to the delay in the population census procedures. However, the census is understood to commence in the first week of September, using
digital technology, after resolving all technical uncertainties. The Ministry of Home Affairs, which is responsible for the census, and the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have submitted the schedule and other related matters to the Prime Minister's Office. It is expected that once the Prime Minister's Office grants approval, the census process will begin.
According to the United Nations, India is now the most populous country in the world. As per the last census conducted in 2011, India was second to China in global population. When India surpassed China about a year ago, the central government could not officially declare it due to a lack of accurate data. Various government schemes, including those related to public welfare, are often planned based on the 2011 census data. This has severely impacted the effectiveness of these schemes, leading to widespread criticism. Under this pressure, the government has decided to expedite the census process.
A census is the first and foremost step in planning a country's development. In other words, population data is considered the foundation for any government scheme. The absence of accurate data not only renders planning unscientific but can sometimes even lead to the failure of a project. Therefore, the people of a country, or the beneficiaries, must be the primary focus for understanding the economic, social, and professional growth of citizens, as well as the country's internal development. This is why countries like Britain conducted a census even during the severe crisis of COVID.
In this regard, the Modi government has failed miserably. Despite warnings from renowned planning experts in the country, the Centre proceeded with various schemes based on data from NITI Aayog and other sources. The result has been that all of these schemes have failed. Take the case of public distribution system, for example: when a new ration list was prepared based on the 2011 census and the 2016 Family Health Survey, it was found that 10 crore people were left out. This failure occurred solely due to the lack of updated population data. Similarly, the balanced and equitable distribution of various resources was also completely disrupted.
Government schemes, such as student scholarships aimed at the upliftment of socially backward communities, have largely failed. This is partly due to the lack of accurate data. Given the unique context of our country, there is a growing demand for a caste-based census in addition to the general population census. The recent emphasis on a caste census during the Lok Sabha elections highlights this need. The central government, which initially adopted a completely negative stance, seems to have loosened a bit. While it is not yet ready for a full-fledged caste census, it is considering including some caste-related data in the general census questionnaire. Although this might be sufficient to appease coalition partners, a comprehensive caste census is essential for obtaining accurate data. In this context, the opposition should exert pressure for a caste-based census.
In the current scenario, the census in India has assumed added significance. Unlike in the past, the world is now discussing population decline. Although the population is still growing, the birth rate is decreasing globally. In India, it is predicted that the population will begin to decline by 2060. The decreasing birth rate and increasing human lifespan are the reasons for this. As a result, there will be a situation where the number of elderly people will surpass that of the young. While this is expected to happen globally by 2100, India will start seeing these signs as early as 2060. In other words, the country's greatest asset—its human resources—is dwindling. At the same time, there is a significant increase in youth migration from the country. If this situation continues, it will not take long for India to find itself without a young population. To address this challenge, accurate data is essential.
Therefore, the census at this time, when significant changes in population distribution are evident, is crucial. On the other hand, one of the sharpest weapons in the hate politics of Hindutva is the false propaganda related to population. In his speech on Vijayadashami in 2022, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat called for population control in the country. The essence of his speech in Nagpur was that minorities were increasing their population through higher birth rates and infiltration, which would lead to the majority becoming a minority. Similarly, the 'minority population explosion theory' is constantly propagated by the Sangh Parivar. With a mix of false logic and lies, this is a tool to 'remind' the majority community that they are a declining population. The true situation behind these falsehoods can only be revealed through accurate and systematic census.