Trump surges ahead in polls amid concerns over Biden's health

I desperately want to be wrong, but the evidence is irrefragable. Trump is now ahead in every poll. The unanimity of the polls is convincing. In most of them, he is several points clear of Biden, well beyond the margin of error. Crucially, Trump is ahead in the swing states. Remember, a candidate may win the popular vote yet lose the Electoral College. This happened in 2000 and 2016.

Biden’s mental decline is painfully evident. A Parkinson’s expert has been visiting the White House regularly. Joseph Robinette Biden is mentally obtunded.

Trump has also suffered a patent mental decline for a decade or more. He is irascible, emotionally incontinent, mentally occluded, disoriented, and slurs his speech. He has shown blatant symptoms of pre-Alzheimer’s for several years. This hereditary condition killed his father.

I would prefer Biden on a bad day to Trump on his best day. Biden is a sane adult, and Trump is not. Biden refuses to budge despite his embarrassing performance on TV. The incumbent wins 75% of the time. An incumbent only loses due to a bad economy, as happened to Trump.

Democrats have been increasingly vocal about the need for Biden to bow out. They were casting around for credible candidates. Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan, was canvassed. She is the right age and won a swing state. People spoke about Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California. He is a handsome 56-year-old who stands 6’4’’. Many people are superficial enough to vote for a man because he looks the part. But as a Californian, he may be seen as a loony liberal.

Some have spoken of the erstwhile First Lady, Michelle Obama. Mrs. Obama has never contested public office. So far, she has evinced no desire to seek the role.

If Biden were to withdraw, then Vice President Kamala Harris is the obvious candidate for the Democrats. However, her approval ratings are terrible. If she were not nominated, it might mortally offend African-Americans, Indian Americans, and women. It is possible that she could stay as the vice-presidential candidate. Having two women on the ticket is seen as too left-field by many.

It is bizarre that in a country of 330 million people, the two parties put forward geriatrics. Trump is an unutterably vile race-baiter and pathological liar. He is egregiously incurious and proud of it. This braggart demagogue is dangerously unmoored from reality.

The assassination attempt on Trump has been rocket fuel for his campaign. His supporters are more energized than ever. Turnout is vital to a candidate’s success. The Democrats always struggle with motivating their supporters to vote.

That the Secret Service allowed a man with a gun to get within 150 meters of Trump at a rally looks bad. But this being the land of the gun, everyone has the right to carry a gun except in a gun-free zone. The man was outside the zone. Therefore, it was a bad venue to pick. The gunman was shot dead. There are conspiracy theories suggesting rogue elements of the FBI put the would-be assassin up to it. Now that he is dead, he cannot spill the beans.

Trump might wear a bulletproof vest. In the future, he will speak behind a bulletproof screen.

If Biden pulls out, the Democrats lose the incumbency advantage. But if the Democrats choose a much more youthful candidate, that would put Trump’s age and infirmity into sharp relief. If, against expectations, Biden wins and is inaugurated, he could resign on day one. Harris would then be president. The US Congress would elect the vice president.

Trump picked J.D. Vance as his running mate. Vance's 39 years balance Trump’s old age. Vance is a senator from a Midwestern state. He grew up in a poor family in the Appalachians. His memoir "Hillbilly Elegy" struck a chord with many working-class people. His economic views are surprisingly left-wing. Vance once likened Trump to Hitler. It shows how shameless and dishonest Vance and Trump are that they go for each other now.

Vance is a confirmed Islamophobe. If Trump is re-elected and departs while in office, then there is a serious possibility of Vance succeeding to the presidency. Senator Vance’s belief in saving children from abortion will please many people who care about human rights.

The chance that Trump wins now is 60%.