Trump Always Chickens Out: Iran shows those who endure the most win
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On 9 March, President Trump said, ‘The war is complete: almost.’ Only Trump could end a war and not end it in the same sentence. Donald J Trump has also contradicted himself regarding the reasons for its beginning.
It was to annihilate Iran’s so-called nuclear arms programme, which he claimed to have already annihilated in 2024. It was to bring about regime change and then not to bring about regime change, and then it supposedly was again.
President Putin spoke to Trump for an hour by phone on 9 March, and that led to Trump announcing the apparent end of the war. He even stated on 8 March that the war was already won.
As I predicted in January 2026, the United States would launch a major air strike against Iran but not invade. The United States learnt painful lessons in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran would make Iraq look like a picnic. Iran is four times the size of Iraq in both area and population. It is also very mountainous. It would be a very formidable foe.
The US Government can proclaim its goals acheived. It has sent most of the Iranian Navy to the seabed. It has wrecked the Iranian nuclear programme. Around 1,400 Iranians have been killed, most of them civilians.
Israel is satisfied that even if it has not wiped out the Iranian nuclear programme, it has delayed it by decades. Likewise, in Lebanon Israel’s ground invasion and aerial bombardment have hurt Hezbollah and killed hundreds of Lebanese civilians. The Israelis might continue to occupy some of South Lebanon as they did from 1982 to 2000. They have found that they can break international law ever more brazenly and get away with it.
Public opinion is decidedly against this war. Only 27% of Americans are in favour of the war, and 50% are against it. Those who are in favour are mostly Republican voters, but by no means all Republican voters are pro-war.
Around 40% of the population is Republican. The Make America Great Again Movement (MAGA) is visibly uneasy about this war. They want to return to isolationism. They perceive no need for this war. The longer this war goes on, the more its popularity will decline.
The war has caused oil and gas prices to spike. The US promised Gulf Arab countries that it would be able to keep the Gulf of Hormuz open for navigation. As usual, the USA failed to deliver on that promise. Qatar has had to stop production of liquid natural gas (LNG).
Other Gulf Arab countries are mostly unable to export their hydrocarbons. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline from the Gulf to the Red Sea and has continued to export oil that way.
However, this is less than can be exported when the Gulf route is open as well. The global economy has suffered because almost everything is linked to energy prices, even indirectly. Civil aviation has been badly impacted. It may take some months for oil and gas prices and air travel to return to normal.
Iran’s strategy was to hit Uncle Sam where it hurt — in the wallet. By attacking civilian ships in the Gulf and economic targets in Gulf Arab countries, this damaged the world economy. The stock market did not like it. That is why many countries have pleaded with the US to end the war.
The United States is now low on missiles and drones. Generals and admirals are telling Trump that they need to restock. If the US gets dragged into a war in Europe or the Far East, it will not have enough munitions.
Trump stood for election on a peace platform. He repeatedly promised not to engage in stupid, senseless, and unwinnable wars. As so often, he reneged on this express promise.
It would be folly of the highest order to invade Iran without a UN Security Council Resolution, without domestic support, and without even a single other country participating. But staggering stupidity is Trump’s strongest suit.
Trump has not brought regime change. Iran chose a new supreme leader — Mojtada Khamenei. He is the son of the late Ali Khamenei. This is a calculated act of defiance. Trump had arrogated to himself the prerogative of choosing the new supreme leader. There is no sign that Iran is backing down. It is not those who inflict the most suffering but those who can endure the most who win.
Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) is true here. Despite his bombast and braggadocio, Trump is not brave. He is invertebrate and will give in.
There are no demonstrations in Iran. Trump armed the Iranian Kurds, hoping for a rebellion. He had cut them off in January 2026 to please the Syrian Government. The Kurds were wiser than to trust Trump.
Trump will say that the war aims have been achieved and will try to end the war. There might be the occasional missile sent into Iran or an air strike, but within a week the US will say it is all over and hope life can go back to normal. He would like to quit while he is ahead.
The Iranians are lusting for vengeance. In 2024 they were told the war was over and for no reason at all Israel and the USA restarted it in 2025. They believe that the USA needs to be taught a bloody lesson so that it does not attack again. Therefore, Iran will probably plot bombs in the USA or its allies.
Iran cannot hit back conventionally. Its navy is down in Davy Jones’s locker. Its air force mostly consists of planes from the 1970s. Its army has largely antiquated equipment, but it is very large and in a conventional war would cause the USA major problems. That is why the US military has been smart enough to avoid fighting on the ground.
Vice President J D Vance has been invisible since the war began. He opposed the war but did not have the moral courage to say so. Therefore, he has made no public appearances. This war will be a hard sell for him if he stands for president in 2028. He is the runaway favourite for the Republican nomination.