Can Trump wield his big stick?

Will Donald Trump, with his landslide victory, open a new page in his internal policies as well as in his relationship with the outside world? He seems convinced that fate has brought him back to lead America and the world as a peacemaker. During the election campaign, he advocated peace, not just peace, but peace through strength. He promised that he would be following the footsteps of President George Washington and President Teddy Roosevelt, who famously said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick” - although in his first term his foreign policy he was observed as saying “Speak loudly and carry a big stick!” In his campaign tour, more than once, he declared that he would end conflicts and wars, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine. Will Trump fulfill his promises with his team he has formed?

It is clear from Trump’s appointments that his team comes from two wings of the Republican Party: the remnants of the neoconservatives who have changed their orientation to align with Trump’s policy and who are hawks towards China and Iran. The second consists of the supporters of Israel. Both these groups are opponents of foreign intervention if it costs the American treasury and citizens. And the Republicans feel that he would be a different president from his previous version or Trump 1.0, to change his image and try to leave a legacy that erases some of the scandals, crises and issues that stuck to him. It could be correct as he has the opportunity to do so now that the Republicans have regained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives as well as a Conservative majority in the Supreme Court.

Now, the world is witnessing the war of genocide and ethnic cleansing in the occupied Palestinian territories, and comprehensive and continuous destruction and forced displacement in southern Lebanon, which is almost unparalleled anywhere else in the world. Will the coming period be more violent, more destructive and more horrific? Political observers generally agree that Trump will deal with the actual data and facts on the ground, which he would not be able to deny or cancel. On occupying the Oval office, he would legitimize and codify them within a consensual framework according to his political vision. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu described Trump during his first term as the best friend of Israel among all the American presidents who came to the White House. Hence, his return to the White House means reviving the great alliance between them. So,during the period before 5th January 2025, Netanyahu wants to establish, as quickly as possible, everything to create a new reality that Donald Trump will find ready and waiting for him when he officially begins to assume his duties. The Biden administration is doing everything in support of it.

The world witnessed the drama “ceasefire” played by Anthony Blinken. Now, it is played by the special envoy Amos Hochstein. It is said that he is trying to reach a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah. But, the other day, on 20th November, the United States used its veto against a draft resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all prisoners! The resolution received the support of 14 of the 15 members of the Security Council, but it was not adopted due. to the “veto” of the United States! Britain, France, China and Russia-all other permanent members supported it. This shows that the American play is only a ploy in support of Israel. Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since October 7,2023, leaving more than 45,000 Palestinians martyrs, more than 100,000 wounded, most of them children and women.

Now, Donald Trump has to face a new Middle East, dramatically transformed due to great power rivalries. In September 2018, Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Foreign Policy Program, had convened a meeting of its experts to assess the new geopolitical situation in the Middle East. They assessed that the American influence in the region was certainly on the decline. Moreover, other actors like China and Russia have been poking themselves into regional decision making. As these dynamics converged, a new geopolitical structure has evolved in the Middle East which was absent during the first term of Donald Trump.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are now friendly and they seem to have a common strategic objective in the Palestinian issue. Russia and China seem to protect the sovereignty of these states even at the expense of the United States. Trump’s strategy, if he doesn't realize the actual situation in Gaza and Lebanon, will get irretrievably stuck in the quagmire of Zionist bargain. He may shout, but his stick will be fragile!