Israel signals intent to expand Lebanon war amid ceasefire ambiguity

Israel’s war with the Lebanese group Hezbollah appears set to escalate as the Israeli government sends mixed messages regarding a potential ceasefire.

While the country’s military leadership suggests a possible expansion of operations against Hezbollah, diplomatic overtures simultaneously suggest interest in a truce, a strategy analysts believe may mask intentions to prolong and intensify the conflict, Al Jazeera reported.

On November 6, Israel’s Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi announced that plans to widen the military campaign in Lebanon were under consideration. Yet, Halevi also indicated that Israel was engaging in diplomatic efforts aimed at establishing a ceasefire.

This dual approach has raised scepticism among observers, with many arguing that the ceasefire rhetoric may serve primarily as a means to place blame on Hezbollah for the continued hostilities.

The ongoing conflict has devastated southern Lebanon, resulting in the destruction of multiple villages, the deaths of over 3,000 individuals, and the displacement of approximately 1.2 million people. Some analysts suggest Israel is employing a strategy similar to its actions in Gaza, where prolonged ceasefire negotiations with Hamas often collapsed due to shifting Israeli demands.

In Gaza, this approach resulted in a deadly military campaign, leading to tens of thousands of deaths and displacement, while drawing international condemnation.

Recent developments include a leaked ceasefire proposal from the United States that reportedly aligns with Israeli demands. The proposal suggests the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon during a 60-day ceasefire, contingent on the Lebanese army disarming Hezbollah.

It also allows Israel to conduct operations in southern Lebanon to counter perceived threats. Analysts argue that such conditions, which effectively call for Hezbollah’s disarmament, are unacceptable to Lebanon and risk sparking internal conflict.

With no signs of Israeli flexibility on these terms, the prospect of a ceasefire remains dim. Observers believe Israel is likely preparing to escalate the conflict further, particularly as the country’s leadership anticipates a more favourable stance from the incoming US administration under Donald Trump. Trump’s previous term saw significant US support for Israeli policies, including the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states while sidelining Palestinian aspirations.

Hezbollah, for its part, has shown no indication of surrender. The group continues to engage Israeli forces and launch missile strikes into northern Israel, with its leaders reportedly prepared for a protracted conflict. Hezbollah is said to prefer defending its position through guerrilla tactics in Lebanon’s challenging terrain, which could neutralise the advantages of Israel’s armoured vehicles.

Despite the severe humanitarian crisis unfolding in Lebanon, including widespread displacement and destruction, Hezbollah appears determined to maintain its stance. The group, which holds significant sway within Lebanon’s Shia community, relies on its supporters to remain resolute despite the hardships they face.