IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon with disturbing showers

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday released its second stage long-range forecast in which it upgraded its monsoon forecast to 101% of LPA ( Long Period Average). This means the country is expected to receive "normal to above normal" rainfall with "well distributed" showers in the June-September period this year.

"Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%," said IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

Earlier in mid-April, the first stage forecast of IMD had predicted rainfall to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%.T

However, certain pockets in the country, including small areas of north-west India, Bihar, Assam, northern West Bengal, Meghalaya, Ladakh and the western part of the south peninsula, may get "below normal" rainfall during the four-month season.

In northwest India, parts of Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, including areas in Delhi-NCR, may also fall in the category of "below normal".

The prediction, however, showed that there would be no shortage of rains for farming operations as the entire "monsoon core zone", which consists of the rain-fed agriculture regions of the country, is likely to get "above normal" rainfall.

The monsoon onset over Kerala is expected around Thursday.