5 crore vote discrepancy in final turnout figures in Lok Sabha elections

Ever since the 18th Lok Sabha election was declared, the Election Commission had been under scrutiny for many reasons, including its laxity in taking action against the ruling BJP for their leaders' violations of the code of conduct. It had been criticized for being biased towards the BJP while actions were initiated against the members of opposition parties even for relatively minor mistakes while going blind to the grave errors committed by the BJP leaders.

Critics have raised concerns about the ECI's handling of the elections, including its failure to address code of conduct violations, voter suppression reports, and malfunctioning electronic voting machines (EVMs). This criticism has intensified the already polarized atmosphere surrounding the election's fairness, particularly in light of claims that a level political playing field was absent, according to The Wire report.

A month after the election results, the Maharashtra-based citizens' platform, Vote For Democracy (VFD), released a report making significant allegations against the ECI, questioning the fairness of its actions.

The VFD highlighted several key issues, beginning with a discrepancy of nearly 5 crore votes between the approximate number of votes polled reported by the ECI on polling days at around 8 PM and the final voter turnout. The VFD calculated this difference to be precisely 4,65,46,885 votes.

The report noted that while the percentage increase between estimated voter turnout and final turnout was around 1% in previous elections, this time it ranged from 3.2% to 6.32% across all seven phases, with Andhra Pradesh and Odisha showing particularly high increases of 12.54% and 12.48%, respectively. The cumulative average increase was found to be 4.72%.

The Vote for Democracy (VFD) report suggested that there was a significant increase in voter turnout in the 18th Lok Sabha elections. This increase was so large that in 79 constituencies across 15 states, it was greater than the margin by which the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won. This suggests that the unexpectedly high number of votes could indicate potential manipulation or irregularities in the voting process.

These constituencies included 18 in Odisha, 11 in Maharashtra, 10 in West Bengal, seven in Andhra Pradesh, six in Karnataka, five each in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, three each in Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana, two in Assam, and one each in Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, and Kerala. The report called for the ECI to transparently explain the reasons for the substantial increase in voter turnout.

The third significant point raised by the VFD was the concern regarding the narrow margins by which National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidates won in 18 constituencies across 10 states. These narrow victories have raised serious questions about the integrity of the election process in these areas. Specifically, there were allegations of potential malpractice and electronic voting machine (EVM) malfunctions during both the voting and counting phases.

The report names specific constituencies where these issues were prominent, including Saran in Bihar, Mumbai North-West in Maharashtra, and Farrukhabad, Bansgaon, and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh. The VFD detailed various incidents that contributed to these concerns, such as voter suppression, EVM malfunctions, the controversial transfer of officials in states governed by opposition parties, alleged misconduct by returning officers, and complaints from the opposition that were not addressed.

The VFD report, authored by former bureaucrat M.G. Devasahayam and activist Dr Pyare Lal Garg, was presented by activists Teesta Setalvad, Dolphy D’Souza, Father Frazer Mascarenhas, and Khalil Deshmukh.

While the report did not question the ECI's credibility outright, it expressed serious concerns about the fair outcome of the electoral process and called for an independent investigation under autonomous supervision to address the doubts and allegations raised during the elections.

Section 80 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, allows candidates or voters to challenge election outcomes within 45 days of the results being declared. The VFD's report emphasized the need for the ECI to respond credibly and transparently to restore public faith in the electoral process. The allegations and the VFD's demands for an investigation underscore the ongoing debate about the integrity of the 2024 election results.