Earthquakes near supervolcano: Italy prepares for potential mass evacuation

Naples: The Italian government has initiated contingency plans for a potential mass evacuation due to a supervolcano that has triggered approximately 2,500 earthquakes since September.

Residents in the city of Pozzuoli, located outside Naples, have raised concerns about heightened volcanic activity, as they reside within the volcanic region of Campi Flegrei. This 80-square-mile depression is home to numerous conical volcanoes, crater lakes, and more than half a million inhabitants, with an additional 800,000 living just outside the depression, reported NBC News.

The US Geological Society defines a supervolcano as one that has experienced an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), signifying the release of over 1,000 cubic kilometres (240 cubic miles) of material. Italy's official tourism website classifies Campi Flegrei as a "dormant supervolcano, one of the few on the Earth's surface," with its most recent eruption taking place in 1538.

Alessandro Iannace, a geology professor at the University of Naples Federico II, explained that in Campi Flegrei, as with other supervolcanoes worldwide, the probability of a catastrophic eruption is low but not nonexistent.

The recent increase in earthquakes in Campi Flegrei has been attributed to a phenomenon called bradyseism. The area around Pozzuoli's port has risen by approximately 11.5 feet since the late 1960s, including more than 3 feet since 2014, according to Italy's National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology.

The Italian government conducted a review of the situation last month, stating that evacuation orders would be issued if authorities deemed buildings to be at risk of collapse. Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci noted that any evacuation would occur only in cases of "extreme necessity," reported The Guardian.

Pamphlets have been distributed to Pozzuoli residents, outlining the steps to follow in the event of an eruption and its aftermath. Resident Claudio Correale commented that the evacuation plan's inadequacy is widely recognised. However, he noted that an actual evacuation might not be necessary, as residents would likely have left the area by the time of a volcanic eruption.

A recent study by Italy's National Institute in collaboration with University College London concluded that while an eruption in Campi Flegrei is not imminent, the ongoing earthquakes have weakened the volcano, increasing the likelihood of a rupture in the Earth's crust.

In preparation for any potential eruption, the Italian government continues to assess and monitor the situation closely, emphasising the importance of safety measures and evacuation plans in the volcanic region.