Layers of the Kashmir drama

On June 19, Mehbooba Mufti had begun her routine work at Srinagar’s civil secretariat when her Principal Secretary Rohit Kansal received a call from Raj Bhawan. Governor NN Vohra was informing her that BJP withdrew support to her government and whether she was interested in exploring any other options.

Mehbooba hurriedly left the secretariat for her official residence and in an hour’s time called upon Vohra at Raj Bhawan to submit her resignation. Even when she was preparing to hold a press conference, many of her ministers were still working in their office chambers.

The sudden development ended the PDP-BJP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir painstakingly cobbled up in the follow up of fractured verdict in 2014 assembly elections. The alliance had no public sanction in Kashmir but the PDP patron Mufti Muhammad Sayeed then described it as compact between ‘north pole and south pole’ and a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between diverse regions of the state—Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh. The alliance lasted for the half of its sanctioned six years.

There was not a single day when the two parties were sitting pretty in each other’s company. The BJP feared that it was losing its core constituency in Jammu region where it won 25 seats for the first time in electoral history of the state. The PDP on the other hand lost the elements of its core ideology that primarily sought resolution of Kashmir issue through a sustained a result-oriented dialogue process.

For the past two decades, the party emerged as an alternative to the National Conference and Congress and acted as a buffer between separatist and unionist ideologies in Kashmir. The government collapsed at a crucial time. The initiative of cessation of combat operations against militants during the month of Ramadan ended without yielding any positive result. The militants rejected the offer and separatists on the political front refused to engage with the ‘special representative’ appointed by New Delhi to hold talks. Eventually, the ceasefire was withdrawn much to the chagrin of Mehbooba Mufti, who was expecting its extension till the completion of annual Amarnath yatra starting June 28.

Interestingly, the man who co-authored the Agenda of Alliance document with PDP founder Mufti Sayeed in 2015 was chosen to announce its burial. Ram Madhav, BJP’s general secretary declared in New Delhi that BJP chose to pull out of the government in the national interest. He cited that radicalization was spreading in Kashmir, militants had a free run and citizen’s freedom of speech and movement was under severe threat. He repeatedly referred to the broad day killing of noted journalist Shujaat Bukhari who was assassinated along-with his two PSO’s outside his office in the press enclave area of Srinagar on June 24.

On the same day, a soldier Aurangzab was waylaid by militants in south Kashmir and killed in a few hours. He had left his camp to travel to his native place in civvies to celebrate Eid with his family in Poonch. Such is the militant network in the southern region that they knew his movement, abducted and killed him. During captivity, his interrogation with specific questions on the operational methodology of the army in the area was recorded for circulation.

During her tenure Mehbooba did not hamper campaign against militancy. During the past three years around 600 militants including topmost commanders were killed. The separatist leadership was dismantled and most of them were jailed or reduced to the confines of their homes. The supporters of militants during encounters were targeted with bullets and most of the encounters in south Kashmir ended with civilian casualties. In one such encounter, the civilian deaths outnumbered the slain militants. On that count, her approach was not less than ‘nationalistic’.

However, to address her constituency in Kashmir, she continued her voice for purposeful dialogue with all stakeholders including Pakistan. This did not go down well with her coalition partner. During the month of Ramadan, Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh arrived in Kashmir on separate occasions. Mehbooba again emphasized on talking to Pakistan and separatists. Perhaps, this was no music to Modi’s ears. On the national level, such clamour does not fit in his scheme of things when the government is wrapping up and general elections are round the corner. Rather than talking to separatists, Modi would like to pursue a hard stance, both in word and action. This is where the two parties fell apart. Announcing her resignation at a press conference, Mehbooba cautioned on pursuing ‘muscular policy’ in Kashmir and highlighted that she tried her best to ensure ceasefire, initiation of dialogue and safeguarding the state’s special status under article 370 and 35 A of the Indian constitution. She did not appear to be shaken or heartbroken. Her body language stated that she wanted to return to the basic politics of her party.

Observers say that the upcoming months are very crucial in Kashmir. During the Governor’s rule, entire focus would be dismantling the militant network, especially in south Kashmir. Around 250 to 300 militants belonging to Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and Jaish-e-Muhammad outfits are active. During recent months, several groups have infiltrated with more weapons and gadgetry. Presence of
militants in capital Srinagar, which remained militancy-free for more than a decade, is one of the vital challenges.

Conducting Amarnath yatra and reducing the number of militants in synergized operations is the primary task of the Governor. The biggest challenge is to ensure safety of common people during the operations. Any mishandling can lead to massive public uprising as the resentment level in very high. It is tricky to use iron fist simultaneously with the velvet glove. Interestingly, the state assembly has not been dissolved. It is in suspended animation and there is likelihood that a possible improvement in situation may encourage the parties to rethink on their alliance. I won’t be surprised if Mehbooba Mufti returns to power after a while to complete the residual part of the allotted six years.