Super El Niño: India towards monsoon shock, water stress, extreme heat?

New Delhi: India could be heading toward a troubling monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department warning that rainfall this year may reach only 90 percent of the long-period average, raising fears of agricultural stress, water shortages and extreme weather conditions across large parts of the country.

Meteorologists have estimated a 60 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall, a development that could have serious consequences for a nation where nearly 52 per cent of farmland still depends directly on monsoon rains. The warning comes amid growing concern over the emergence of a powerful El Niño event, a climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that can dramatically alter global weather patterns.

According to projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is an 82 percent chance of El Niño developing between May and July, with the probability rising to 96 percent by winter. Scientists fear the event could evolve into a “Super El Niño” comparable to the powerful episodes of 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Experts noted that India has historically experienced below-normal rainfall in about 60 percent of El Niño years. Professor Raghu Murtugudde of the University of Maryland and IIT Kanpur said the distribution and timing of rainfall were more critical than the total amount, warning that prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall patterns could severely damage crops during key growth stages and sharply reduce yields

Climate experts also warned that El Niño could push global temperatures to new highs. Skymet Weather president GP Sharma said conditions could resemble the devastating Super El Niño of four decades ago and might contribute to record-breaking global temperatures by 2027.

Food policy expert Devinder Sharma warned that delayed rains could intensify heatwave conditions in northwestern India while disrupting farmers’ decisions, costs and harvest cycles. Dr GV Ramanjaneyulu of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture urged a shift away from water-intensive crops such as paddy toward millets and other resilient crops.

Experts cautioned that weaker rainfall could lower groundwater levels, reduce water in reservoirs and rivers, and threaten urban, industrial and agricultural water supplies. Dr Anjal Prakash of FLAME University warned that rainfall at just 90 percent of the long-term average posed a significant threat to India’s water security. Although a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could partially offset El Niño’s drought-inducing effects, experts believe it is unlikely to fully neutralize the impact of a strong El Niño event.