On 22 June, Sir Keir Starmer announced that he would resign as Prime Minister as soon as a replacement could be found. Starmer's own Labour Party demanded that he step aside after poor local election results and the lowest ever approval rating for a prime minister: -45%. It is likely that Labour will elect a new leader and that he will become prime minister by the end of July.
Andy Burnham, 55, was a Labour MP and cabinet minister in the Tony Blair government. He twice stood to be leader of the Labour Party and came fourth the first time and second on his second attempt. He then left Parliament to become mayor of Manchester. Burnham served ten years as mayor of the UK's third city. He was elected three times to that office. Burnham was re-elected to Parliament on 19 June. He must resign as mayor of Manchester as he is now an MP.
Burnham has a high approval rating. He is very popular in the region of England where he grew up. He is known as 'the King of the North'. Labour was casting around for a leader with charisma and a proven track record of getting things done. Burnham is experienced and old enough without being too old. He is married to a Dutch woman and has three children. His cupboard seems free of skeletons.
On 9 July, the Labour Party will open nominations for the leadership election. It requires 20% of Labour MPs to nominate someone for him or her to become a candidate. This allows a maximum of five candidates. Nominations close on 16 July. If only one candidate is nominated, then he or she is elected unopposed.
If there is a contested election, then all members of the Labour Party have the right to vote for a leader. Every vote carries equal weight, so the vote of an MP is worth no more than that of any other Labour member.
Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary in June to try to force Starmer out. Streeting did not have enough nominators to challenge Starmer. Streeting now backs Burnham. The Deputy Prime Minister, David Lammy, has endorsed Burnham. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has ruled herself out of the contest. There was talk of the former Armed Forces Minister, Al Carns. Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, was talked about as a candidate but has ruled himself out. Ed Miliband, who led the Labour Party from 2010 to 2015, is also being discussed as a candidate.
Some people want an unopposed election so Labour can move on quickly. Others say a coronation of a new leader is unhealthy and that a leadership election will oblige Burnham to set out his stall. He will lack a mandate if elected unopposed.
There is a 90% chance that Burnham will be elected unopposed. If he is opposed, there is a 90% chance that he would win.
Labour always says more diversity is needed. Yet it is electing a middle-aged white man with an Oxbridge education. That is far from being diverse.
Andy Burnham grew up near Liverpool in a lower-middle-class family, although he likes to portray himself as working class. He has one brother, and both were raised in the Catholic Church. Burnham says he is not very religious. The area where he grew up is one of the most Labour-voting areas in the UK. He joined the Labour Party at 15. He is a quarter Irish and is an ardent supporter of Everton Football Club.
Burnham shone academically and attended a state school. He went on to study English Literature at Cambridge University. He was known for being open about his modest origins. Most people at Cambridge at that time came from affluent backgrounds and had attended fee-paying schools.
After graduation, Burnham worked for a trade magazine. A chance introduction led to a job as an aide to a Labour MP. Soon, he became a special adviser to the government. One of the criticisms of Burnham is that he worked outside politics for only three years.
In 2001, Burnham was elected to Parliament. The prime minister at the time spotted Burnham as a rising talent and promoted him rapidly. He also served in Gordon Brown's cabinet from 2007 to 2010.
In 2015, Burnham failed in his second attempt to become leader of Labour. In 2016, he left Parliament to become mayor of Manchester. The then Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, urged Burnham to go for the Manchester mayoralty. This was a way of getting a rival out of Parliament.
Burnham had been a conventional Blairite minister. By the 2010s, he presented himself as being on the left of the party because that was the trend at the time. As mayor of Manchester, he was adept at securing money from the central government. That was impressive considering it was a Conservative government.
If Burnham becomes prime minister, he faces some real dilemmas. There is a consensus that the UK is spending too little on defence. Economic growth is 1%. Taxes are very high, and the wealthy are emigrating. National debt is at its highest level ever. The number of people receiving government money because they are disabled is at its highest level ever and continues to grow. The waiting list to see a doctor is growing.
The police are overstretched and spend much of their time on courses about racism and transgender issues. The government's fairly Zionist stance on Palestine is unpopular. Crime is rising alarmingly. The government refuses to allow more oil and gas drilling in British waters but is buying oil and gas from Russia.
The rush to net-zero carbon emissions has made electricity in the UK the most expensive in the world, and this is harming industry. Environmental campaigners demand that the UK stick to net zero. The cost of housing is rising as very few homes are being built. Major infrastructure projects are years behind schedule and tens of billions of pounds over budget. Many universities are about to go bust, and hundreds of billions of pounds in student debt will never be repaid.
In short, the UK has a slew of problems to solve, all of which require a great deal of money, but there is very little money available. Cutting welfare spending is politically unacceptable to Labour. Raising taxes would be electoral suicide. How will Burnham square that circle?
If he becomes prime minister, there will be a honeymoon period for Mr Burnham. Expectations are too high. The problems that dogged Starmer will not magically disappear with Burnham.
The markets are worried that Burnham will borrow too much, and the cost of borrowing is already going up. Some fear a Liz Truss-style moment. Burnham should realise that he needs to reassure the financial sector that he is fiscally responsible.
With Burnham, Labour at least has a chance over the next three years before the general election. Under Starmer, it had no chance. Burnham could call an early election, but that is thought to be unlikely. Labour might not even move ahead in the polls the day he takes over. Labour has a large majority now, and even if it won a general election now, it would almost certainly not be by as large a majority as last time.
Why did Starmer resign when, until a few days earlier, he had said he would lead Labour into the 2029 election? Starmer resigned because Burnham had been elected to Parliament and was seen as a saviour. If Starmer did not go willingly, he faced the humiliation of a cabinet revolt.
Some cabinet members told him to go, in addition to those who resigned. Twenty-five per cent of Labour MPs had already said publicly that Starmer had to go. Starmer's wife, Victoria, had been a tower of strength for him. She had often buoyed up his spirits in difficult times. But on the weekend of 20 and 21 June, they went to Chequers, the prime ministerial retreat 30 miles from London. After much reflection, Mr and Mrs Starmer decided to bow to the inevitable.
Sir Keir Starmer is 64 and only became an MP at the age of 52. Most people who rise high in politics enter Parliament in their thirties. He took over Labour after it had just suffered its heaviest defeat since 1935. The party had almost no funds. Getting back into the office was seen as a two-term project.
The barrister Starmer led a forensic dissection of the bungling and dishonesty of successive Conservative prime ministers. In 2024, Starmer led his party not merely to victory but to its second-biggest landslide ever, winning 410 seats out of 650 in total. Only 326 are needed for a majority.
But various missteps and very poor communications led to Labour falling and falling in the polls until it was coming fourth in most surveys. When Starmer stepped down, the Labour Party was looking at a disastrous defeat at the next parliamentary election. The party was at panic stations.
The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has the highest approval rating of any UK political party leader. But if Burnham takes over, he will be more popular than her, at least at first. The Conservatives are jubilant at having forced Starmer out by exposing his constant failures.
But the Conservative Party is conscious that it has just lost an asset. For the Conservatives, a poor Labour leader was a gift that kept on giving. Burnham may prove to be a much more formidable opponent. If he is as good as he looks, then the Conservatives have a serious problem.