Scotland has been part of the United Kingdom since the UK's foundation in 1707 under the Act of Union. The UK is "united" insofar as it comprises Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England. People sometimes erroneously say "England" when they mean the UK.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) won a fifth consecutive election to the Scottish Parliament in May 2026. The SNP was founded a century ago with the aim of withdrawing Scotland from the United Kingdom and making Scotland entirely independent. In the early twentieth century, this was seen as an extreme and unrealistic proposition. Many people had never even heard the suggestion, and even some of those who favoured Scottish independence believed it was impossible.
The SNP has achieved some remarkable electoral results. In 2015, it won 50% of the vote in Scotland and secured 56 of the 59 Scottish constituencies in the UK Parliament. Although the party is no longer as strong as it was at its peak, it remains the largest party in Scotland.
The SNP Government in Scotland has, according to its critics, failed on multiple fronts. On unemployment, welfare, health, education, crime and transport, it is argued that it has underperformed. The Scottish Government is therefore shifting the focus to independence. The UK Supreme Court unanimously confirmed in 2022 that Scotland can hold a referendum on leaving the UK only with the consent of the UK Government. Successive UK Governments—both Conservative and Labour—have stated that they will not agree to another referendum, arguing that the 2014 vote settled the matter.
The Labour Party dominated Scottish politics from the 1950s to the 2000s, winning elections to the UK Parliament, Scottish Parliament, European Parliament and local authorities. Labour has since experienced a long-term decline in Scotland and is now the third-largest party there.
The Conservative Party has not been strong in Scotland since the 1980s. In 1997, it lost all its Members of Parliament in Scotland. Although it has since regained some representation, it remains relatively weak.
The Liberal Democrats once had a significant presence in Scotland, but they now have limited representation at either UK or Scottish level.
The Scottish Green Party is a significant political force. The Greens are a left-wing ecological party and support Scottish independence. They have often acted as allies of the SNP.
Reform UK is a relatively new party committed to maintaining the unity of the United Kingdom. It is a right-wing populist party and is currently the second-largest party in Scotland. Reform UK is a polarising force, and the SNP frequently cites the party as an example of why Scotland should consider independence.
John Swinney is the First Minister of Scotland. He led the SNP from 2000 to 2004 while it was in opposition. Following poor election results, he resigned. Alex Salmond, who had previously led the party during the 1990s, returned to the leadership in 2004 and remained leader until 2014. Two other leaders followed before Swinney returned to the position in 2024.
Swinney is not regarded as especially charismatic and is now in his sixties. He has been a full-time politician for nearly three decades and is generally viewed as being on the left of the party. His approval ratings are currently satisfactory, although the party is still benefiting from the immediate aftermath of its election victory. Swinney is politically astute and may recognise that the party's popularity could decline. Consequently, he continues to emphasise the issue of independence, which remains highly popular among party activists.
The SNP was also affected by an embezzlement scandal. Peter Murrell, the party's former chief executive, was convicted of embezzling £400,000 over a thirteen-year period and was imprisoned. His wife, Nicola Sturgeon, served as leader of the party and First Minister of Scotland for eight years. She was not charged with any offence and stated that she had no knowledge of the missing funds. The SNP has sought to move beyond the controversy.
Labour is less unpopular than the Conservative Party in Scotland. A Labour Government in London is generally regarded as less beneficial to the cause of Scottish independence than a Conservative Government. The leader of the Scottish Labour Party is Anas Sarwar. The British-Pakistani politician may face pressure over poor election results. A more effective Scottish Labour leader could present a significant challenge to the SNP.
A referendum was held in Scotland in 2014 on the question, "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The result was 55% voting No and 45% voting Yes. Critics argued that the SNP had not fully addressed several important questions:
• If Scotland left the UK, what arrangements would govern trade?
• If Scotland left the UK, what currency would it use?
• If Scotland left the UK, how would it organise its defence?
The SNP proposed that an independent Scotland would seek membership of the European Union. At the time, Spain indicated that it would oppose any precedent that might encourage separatist movements elsewhere, particularly in Catalonia. Since all EU member states must approve new admissions, a single veto could prevent accession.
The SNP also proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the Pound Sterling. The UK Government argued that a formal currency union would not be available. Scotland could establish its own currency, although critics warned that doing so would involve significant economic risks.
As for defence, the SNP proposed membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Critics argued that a newly independent Scotland could face difficulties in securing membership and establishing adequate defence capabilities during any transitional period. The debate has become more prominent since Russia's invasion of Ukraine heightened concerns about national security across Europe.
In 2016, the UK held a referendum on membership of the European Union. The overall result was 52% Leave and 48% Remain. In Scotland, however, 62% voted Remain—the highest Remain vote in any part of the UK. The SNP argued that Scotland should be given another opportunity to vote on independence because circumstances had changed significantly since 2014.
Opponents of independence argue that Brexit was already a realistic possibility before the 2014 referendum and that the decision to remain in the UK should continue to stand. There is currently little indication that the UK will seek to rejoin the EU in the foreseeable future.
Many unionists believe that no UK Government is likely to authorise another independence referendum. They argue that sovereign states are generally reluctant to facilitate territorial separation. They also contend that the SNP's dominance will eventually end and that governing as a minority administration may become increasingly difficult if the party struggles to secure support for legislation.
Opinion polls suggest that support for independence remains closely divided. Some surveys indicate that approximately 47% would vote for independence and 53% would vote against it, excluding undecided voters. Historically, referendums often favour the status quo, and political scientists have frequently noted that proposals for major constitutional change tend to require substantial and sustained public support before succeeding.
The idea of Scottish independence has existed for a long time and is a familiar feature of Scottish political debate. Older voters tend to be more opposed to independence, while support among younger and middle-aged voters is more evenly divided.
Scotland covers approximately 80,000 square kilometres and has a population of about six million. It therefore accounts for roughly 30% of the UK's land area and around 8% of its population. Were it an independent state, Scotland would be a medium-sized European country. Its extensive coastline provides significant opportunities for renewable energy generation, particularly wind power, which forms an important part of the SNP's economic vision.
There is a distinct Scottish identity. Scotland has a separate education system and legal system from the rest of the UK. The Scots language continues to exist, although some regard it as a dialect of English. Virtually all Scots also speak Standard English, often with a Scottish accent. Scotland fields its own national teams in many sports and issues banknotes through Scottish banks, including Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland and Clydesdale Bank. These notes are exchangeable at par with Bank of England notes.
Supporters of the Union argue that Scottish identity flourishes within the United Kingdom and that constitutional change is unnecessary. They also point out that Scotland is represented in the UK Parliament at Westminster and benefits from fiscal transfers within the UK. Given Scotland's ageing population, they contend that these arrangements may become increasingly important.
The likelihood of another independence referendum being held within the next decade is widely debated. Some analysts regard the chances as low. Even if a referendum were held, there is no certainty that it would produce a vote in favour of independence. Consequently, many observers believe that Scotland is unlikely to leave the United Kingdom within the next ten years.