India heads for third driest June in a century, rainfall deficit reaches 42%
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India is set to record its third driest June in a century, with the all-India rainfall deficit standing at 42% and only one day remaining in the month.
The average rainfall recorded across the country so far in June is 92.2 mm against the normal 157.7 mm. Even if the country receives good rainfall on the final day of the month, total rainfall is expected to end at around 100 mm.
Between 1927 and 2026, only 2009, with 87.5 mm of rainfall, and 2014, with 92.1 mm, recorded drier Junes.
Central India has been the worst affected, recording a 54% rainfall deficit, followed by east and northeast India at 41%, northwest India at 30%, and south India at 28%. Meteorologists say it is unusual for all four regions to experience such large deficits simultaneously, indicating the growing influence of El Niño on the southwest monsoon.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns, including India's monsoon.
According to the India Meteorological Department's updated seasonal outlook, this year's monsoon is expected to deliver around 90% of the long-period average. The IMD has projected a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon and an 84% chance of below-normal or deficient rainfall.
The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than normal, before losing momentum.
The IMD expects rainfall to improve and become more widespread during the first week of July, particularly over central India. However, several forecasters expect below-normal rainfall to continue through much of July, making the strength of the monsoon revival crucial to the season's overall outcome.