Liz Truss will be gone by October 28. The three contenders in descending order of likelihood are Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt. All three voted for Brexit.
The MPs will narrow it down to two candidates. 100 out of 357 Tory MPs are needed to nominate a candidate. Rishi and Boris both have 100 already.
If there are two candidates, there will be an online ballot for ordinary members of the Conservative Party. To help reunite the country, Boris would withdraw if Rishi wins the MPs ballot decisively. But Boris cares only about numero uno. He does not care if the party and the country go down in flames so long as he burns brighter. He is a profoundly insecure egomaniac.
RISHI SUNAK
Rishi is the MPs' favourite. He is a 42 British Indian. He was head boy of Winchester College and read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Oxford where he took a 1st class degree. He made his millions at Goldman Sachs. At Stanford University, he picked up an MBA and an Indian billionaire's daughter as a bride. Not bad going all by the age of 30.
Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister). He got to the UK through coronavirus. He was slated by some fellow Conservatives for being like a Labour Chancellor. Sunak resigned in July 2022 in protest at Boris Johnson's incessant mendacity. Johnson was exposed as lying about the handling of an allegation of sexual assault by a Conservative MP against several men.
There are no skeletons in Sunak's cupboard apart from a lockdown party. He is happily married and has two daughters. His financial success has provoked envy from some. Some Tories cannot forgive him for bringing down Boris.
Moderates favour Sunak. If he had become PM in September, the UK would be in a far better state. He is sensible, amenable and honest. Even Labour found it hard to criticize his handling of an incredibly tricky economic predicament.
BORIS
Boris Johnson is the man who was PM till just 6 weeks ago! A cabinet insurrection obliged him to resign. In his valedictory allocation, he said, ''Like Cincinnatus, I am returning to my plough.'' He alluded to the Ancient Roman who pleaded with him to become a dictator in a moment of crisis. Having solved it in 16 days, he resisted all entreaties to remain in office. He was a humble man actuated solely by the common weal. He then retired to his farm. Yet Cincinnatus was re-summoned to the office some years later to deal with another crisis. Boris was hinting that he hoped to be called back to the premiership.
Will Boris have a Lazarus-like resurrection as PM? It is not quite likely that the 58-year-old Old Etonian Oxford graduate will come back. He will come second among Tory MPs. But as he will be in the final two there will be a ballot among ordinary members of the party. In that, he will probably poll 45%. Therefore, he will narrowly lose. But it is by no means impossible that he will win.
The Conservative Party has never kicked out a leader only to bring him back. Only 3 months ago Johnson was forced to resign as party leader due to his endless gaffes, lies, lockdown parties and general chaotic mismanagement. He had tried to rewrite the ministerial code of conduct to save a pal who had broken them. He is totally devoid of ethics and common decency. Boris is a man of vaulting ambition and raging vanity. He believes in one principle only: Himself. He sees the party solely as a vehicle for his self-aggrandizement. He is Trump with a thesaurus. He is utterly untrustworthy and Machiavellian.
Johnson remains popular among grassroots Tories. Some of them deny that he lied and consider his lawbreaking to be a mere trifle. He is charismatic and humorous. He uses this to mask his utter mercilessness and mercenary character. Johnson is shameless and treacherous. Watch your back. He is a narcissist and demands loyalty but gives none himself. He is a phenomenally gifted journalist, author and novelist.
The New York-born Johnson has a New Yorker's brio, bombast and bluster despite leaving the Big Apple with his British parents whilst still in swaddling bands. He is the only PM ever born outside the Commonwealth. He renounced his American citizenship several years ago. He had once dreamt of being President of the USA.
Johnson abominates Rishi. He feels he was backstabbed when Rishi said that the PM had to abide by the rules. Some have talked of a deal between Rishi and Johnson whereby one withdraws so the other becomes PM in return for the other being appointed to a high office. But the two men loath each other so vehemently that this is impossible.
PENNY
Penny Mordaunt is the Leader of the House of Commons and Lord President of the Privy Council. Of the trio, she is the only one currently in the cabinet. She is an unexciting politician and only a medium orator. She has never messed up. It is surprising that someone so mediocre has made it so far. She is known for effort more than achievement. She would be a major improvement on Liz Truss.
Penelope Mordaunt was born in Portsmouth, UK 49 years ago into a working-class military family. Miss Mordaunt was a Royal Navy reserve officer for many years. She was involved in the Tories since her teens and was head of the party's youth wing. She studied politics at Reading University. If she becomes PM she would be the first PM to have attended an English university besides Oxbridge. She married young but soon divorced and lives with her long-term boyfriend. She has no children.
There is talk of a deal between Mordaunt and Rishi. If she withdraws and throws her weight behind Rishi she shall be rewarded.