In June 2024 Rishi Sunak surprised everyone by calling a general election six months ahead of schedule. The election had to be held by the end of January 2025. The conventional wisdom is that he would call it in October. The election will take place on 4 July.
One of Sunak’s aides placed a bet on the election being held on 4 July. It has come to light that this aide had inside information and therefore his wager is illegal. It is deeply embarrassing to the Conservative party that one of its Members of Parliament did something illegal.
When Sunak called the election the Conservatives (Tories) were 20% adrift of Labour, the main opposition party.
Sunak’s personal approval rating is even lower than his party’s. He drags it down.
Why did he call an early election? It is said that he is weary of the job – the constant carping. Nothing he does seems to improve the standing of himself or his party. There was even talk among supporters of former Tory PM Boris Johnson of a parliamentary coup against Sunak. Rather than be booted out by a wing of his own party Sunak chose to be booted out by the electorate.
A Parliament can last up to five years. In that time around 3 000 people apply to be on the Tory candidates’ list. About 1,000 make it onto the shortlist. The party only needs 630 candidates. But it is good to have some spares in case the party needs to dump a candidate.
The Tory campaign has been plagued by unforced errors. The date of the election was such a closely guarded secret that the party was ill-prepared. Some constituencies had not selected candidates. The Tory Party phoned up people on the candidates’ list and asked them to stand. Many said no because they have made other plans.
One man was rejected to be on the list of Tory candidates. The party phoned him and asked him to stand after all. He turned them down. He was too busy with his career. Had they offered him to be a candidate a year ago he would have said yes but his plans have changed.
On June 6 the UK commemorated D-Day. This is the day in 1944 when the largest seaborne invasion in history took place. Hundreds of veterans gathered on the beach in Normandy. The leaders of many Allied nations were there. The veterans are mostly in their high 90s. This is the last jubilee year in which a significant number of veterans attend.
Rishi Sunak left the ceremony early to give a recorded interview to a TV channel. This went down very badly indeed. It seemed so insensitive. It offended the people whom the Tory Party relies on most heavily – elderly people, militarists and nationalists. Labour has shamelessly exploited this. Sunak made a major misjudgment. It was far from crucial for him to give that TV interview, especially at that time.
Conservative morale has sunk down to Davey Jones’ locker. The party cannot get people to campaign.
The shambolic Conservative campaign has caused the party to fall further behind. For six elections in a row, the Tory vote share went up. Now it is due to crash down. They won 44% in 2019. Polls have them at 18%.
The only thing that seems to work for the Conservatives is by warning of Labour’s tax bombshell. They need to bang on and on and on about this. In 1992 this saved the Tory Party from an expected defeat.
People are talking about a Canada 1993-style wipeout for the Tories in the UK. The Canadian Tories were reduced to a mere 2 seats in 1993. The prime minister lost her seat there! The surprising thing for the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is how soon they bounced back. Only 11 years later they won an election. That was partly because they merged with another party – the Canadian Alliance. Some British Tories say that is the solution for them – to merge with Reform UK.
Reform UK is a new political party, led by Nigel Farage. Farage formerly led the UK Independence Party. Farage was initially not going to stand for election. But he said people beseeched him to. His decision to stand has been rocket fuel to his party.
Reform UK has risen and risen in the opinion polls since the campaign began. It has been put ahead of the Conservatives in some polls. The Tory Party is at panic stations. The party does not just face defeat – that happens to every party sometimes. The party faces disaster.
Reform UK is offering facile and populist policies. This impossibilism is because it has no chance of winning the election. It appeals to older and less educated voters, particularly in economically left-behind areas of eastern England. Its leader is Nigel Farage. Farage is the most instantly recognisable figure in British politics. That is partly because he has been in the game for so long. This will be the 8th time he has stood for Parliament. This time he might actually win. The seat he is contesting is Clacton. Its demographics are the most favourable for his party of any seat in the realm.
Farage has been open about his desire to take over the Conservative Party. He was a member in the 1980s. Some Conservative MPs say he will never be allowed to rejoin. But grassroots Conservatives are attracted to him.
There are 650 seats in the House of Commons. A majority is therefore 326. The Tories won 380 last time. The worst result for the Tories in recent times was 1997 when it won 166 seats. 166 is the ceiling of what the Tories are predicted to get now. Some opinion polls show the Conservatives winning a mere 50 seats! That would be by far its worst result ever!
The worst result for the Conservatives thus far in terms of seats was 1906 when it won 130 seats. It was only 6% behind the ruling Liberals at the time. In terms of vote share, 1997 was the worst when it won only 31% of the vote. 31% seems like a golden age for the Tories compared to where they are today.
Opinion polls predict the Tories will win only 18% of the vote! In practice, the Tories outperform such predictions. There is a timid Tory factor. People often lie to the pollsters and say they will not vote Conservative when in fact they intend to do so. Conservative supporters are more likely to vote than their opponents.
There were leaders’ debates between Sunak and Starmer. Sunak narrowly won the first one but was trounced in the second one. It is said that Starmer was a fool to agree to the debates. He is so far ahead that there was nothing to be gained by doing these debates. It was an unnecessary risk.
Labour is being ultra-cautious. So long as they do nothing foolish, they will win handily. Their manifesto is bland and filled with generalities. They wish to avoid many specific policy commitments. Labour does not need to win the election – the Tories have already lost it. By default, Labour will win.
Labour is keen to avoid being accused of overpromising and under-delivering. That is why its manifesto is uninspiring.
Ironically Labour was better prepared for the election than the Conservatives. They had to be ready precisely because they could not choose the date of the election.
Labour will inherit a difficult situation. Economic growth is sluggish. Unemployment is only 4% but it is rising.
The UK has a growing welfare dependency. Millions of people have been certified unfit to work. There is a pension timebomb. The government estimates most university fees will never be repaid.
There is a cost-of-living crisis. Housing is ever more unaffordable. There is rising illegal immigration. People are also worried about legal immigration. Labour has promised to cut legal immigration. When other parties say this, Labour accuses them of racism.
Sir Keir Starmer is charmless and dull. His approval ratings are higher than Sunak’s. Labour is the party of youth, but Starmer is 62.
Labour is being outflanked on the left. People can vote for the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, the Workers’ Party of Britain or in Scotland or Wales the nationalist parties.
Many anti-conservatives assume Labour will win anyway. Therefore, they might not bother to vote. Or indeed they will indulge themselves by voting for a party other than Labour. Labour’s problem is always turnout. This is why the opinion polls always overrate Labour.
The Labour campaign has been dull and the party’s standing in opinion polls has fallen slightly. Labour is worried about apathy. It is not giving people much to hope for. Labour is scared of being accused of having plans to raise taxes. Therefore, it has ruled out raising taxes in most areas. The Tories have rammed home the message that Labour will raise the tax bill of the average family by over £2 000 a year.
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is standing as an independent against Labour. He will probably win.
Some Muslims are sick of Labour’s Zionism. They will vote for other parties.
The Liberal Democrats are usually the third biggest party in the UK. Their vote change will hardly change but they are predicted to gain dozens of seats. They are mainly targeting Tory seats in southern England. The Lib Dems are recovering from a major setback in 2019. They are promising to lead the UK back into the European Union one day. That is strange as they were the first major party to propose an in-out referendum on EU membership. Be careful what you wish for. You may get it!
The Lib Dem campaign has been bland and almost invisible. Sir Ed Davey is an ineffectual leader. His stunts have garnered only a little attention.
With the Tories widely detested and Labour failing to inspire this should be a golden opportunity for the Lib Dems. That they have failed to capitalise on it is a damning indictment of their ineffectual leader.
The Green Party has only one MP. She is retiring. The party is tipped to win 7% of the vote. That will be its best ever. It will get perhaps 2 MPs.
Why is the Tory Party so bitterly unpopular? The party has been in office since 2010. No one can defy political gravity forever. The party has presided over 14 years in which economic growth has been sluggish and austerity has been most considerable. The National Health Service is failing with people having to wait ever longer times for appointments; education has become left-wing miseducation; there is a severe paucity of pedagogues; crimes are on the rise; the cost of living is high; taxes are the highest for 50 years; young people find it harder than ever to get on the property ladder; the Tories were led by a pathological liar called Boris Johnson; inflation was horrific but has come down; the party was led by Liz Truss who wrought untold damage to the economy with her economically illiterate unfunded tax cut…
The Conservative Party has never been popular with the under 30s. But it is now egregiously unpopular amongst the under 30s. Only 7% of 18-year-olds plan to vote Tory.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) rules Scotland. Scotland is part of the UK and is therefore represented in Westminster. The SNP is neck and neck in the opinion polls with Scottish Labour. Labour ruled the roost in Scotland at the Westminster level from the late 1950s until the 2000s. After 9 years in which Labour did poorly in Scotland in Westminster elections, it looks like Labour is back as a strong party if not the strongest.
Labour is certainly going to win. The only question is the size of the majority. The Tories are so desperate they are reduced to warning of a one-party socialist state.
Labour’s lead in the polls is also a risk. There is a danger of complacency. Anti-Tories might be tempted to vote for minor parties as they think Tory defeat is guaranteed. Some may not bother to vote at all. Landslide victories often happen when there is a low turnout.
After the election who will be Tory leader? Probably Kemi Badenoch. Labour and the Lib Dems will unseat most cabinet ministers. Will the Tories tack right or left? Probably to the right at first. They need to see off the challenge from Reform UK.
How soon will the Tories recover? Maybe never. It is possible that the Lib Dems will overtake them and the Tories will be reduced to third-party status for a century. This happened to the Liberals in 1922.
The forecast now is Labour 40% 441 MPs; Conservative 24% 100 MPs; Reform UK 14% 2 MPs; Lib Dems 11% 50 MPs; Greens 7% 2 MPs; SNP 3% 30 MPs; Northern Ireland parties. 3% 18 MPs; Plaid Cymru 1.5% 6 MPs; Speak: 1 MP
The author is a political analyst from the UK. He can be watched on YouTube: George from Ireland