The abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States drew widespread condemnation from world leaders, but Israel quickly turned its salvos towards Iran, as senior Israeli politician Yair Lapid warned Tehran to pay close attention to events in Venezuela, while analysts expressed growing concern that the episode could accelerate a slide towards renewed war with Iran under President Donald Trump or grant Israeli action what they describe as a US imprimatur.
The removal of Maduro from power came only days after Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and reiterated threats of further military action against Iran, and although Washington’s disputes with Caracas and Tehran stem from distinct historical and strategic contexts, foreign policy observers argue that the Venezuela operation has intensified fears of escalation in the Middle East, according to Al Jazeera.
Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, assessed that the move reflected a breakdown of international norms and increased instability, while also strengthening the position of those advocating military confrontation and regime change rather than diplomacy.
According to analysts, the abduction risks are prompting Iran to recalibrate its security posture, as Tehran may seek to enhance its deterrence capabilities or consider pre-emptive measures in response to perceived US or Israeli threats. Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, has noted that the US action underscores the Trump administration’s maximalist approach, which in turn further diminishes prospects for negotiations, particularly as Iranian officials interpret US demands as amounting to unconditional surrender.
Washington’s operation against Maduro followed months of escalating rhetoric from Trump and senior US officials, who have accused the Venezuelan leader of criminal activities and repeatedly asserted US entitlement to Venezuela’s oil resources, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has highlighted Caracas’s ties with Iran and alleged links to Hezbollah.
Maduro has been a close ally of Tehran, and the two heavily sanctioned states have expanded economic cooperation worth billions of dollars, meaning his removal could further shrink Iran’s already limited network of regional and global partners after setbacks suffered by Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran condemned the US action, with its Foreign Ministry characterising the operation as an unlawful act of aggression that undermined international peace and the United Nations system, even as Rubio suggested that the abduction was intended as a warning to all US adversaries. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded defiantly, reinforcing Tehran’s resistance narrative amid heightened tensions.
Trump has continued to threaten Iran publicly, including renewed warnings of strikes should Tehran rebuild its missile or nuclear programmes, following the June conflict in which Israel killed senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists, and the US bombed key nuclear sites. Despite claims by Trump that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were destroyed, Tehran survived the war and retaliated with large-scale missile attacks on Israel, sustaining fire until a ceasefire was reached.
As speculation grows over whether Washington could attempt a Venezuela-style decapitation strategy against Iran, Abdi and other analysts caution that Iran’s leadership has contingency plans to prevent institutional collapse, and that any attempt to abduct or assassinate senior figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian or Khamenei would likely trigger severe retaliation, making such an operation far more complex and destabilising than the action carried out in Caracas.