Bihar polls: Yogendra Yadav says not surprised with result, NDA had advantage

New Delhi: As the Bihar assembly election results were coming in, Yogendra Yadav, psephologist and National Convenor of the Bharat Jodo Abhiyaan, told The Wire that he felt disappointed but not surprised by the emerging outcome. The NDA has a clear majority, winning 202 of the 223 seats.

He explained his assessment through three key points. First, he noted that the NDA is a much larger coalition in terms of the number of parties involved, whereas the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is relatively small. With Chirag Paswan and the LJP returning to the NDA fold, he suggested that the alliance had become even more difficult to challenge.

Second, he pointed out that the NDA has access to a broader social and caste base. According to him, the MGB was largely dependent on support from Muslim and Yadav communities, while the NDA not only retained its traditional support base but also commanded a significant share—around 20–22%—of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) vote.

Finally, he observed that women voters in Bihar sometimes vote independently of family or caste patterns, and they tend to be drawn towards the NDA. He said that the promise of a Rs 10,000 benefit for women under the Mukhyamanthri Mahila Rozgar Yojana likely strengthened this appeal, since such an amount carries substantial value in Bihar, the Wire reported.

When asked if the fact that this was the first election held after the special intensive revision (SIR) of the electoral roll had influenced the outcome, Yogendra Yadav said the Election Commission’s role could not be dismissed as insignificant. 

At the same time, he cautioned that attributing the entire result to the Commission would be politically unwise, and he felt the opposition should avoid doing so. He argued that the Mahagathbandhan needs to reflect on why it has not been able to broaden its social outreach beyond the Yadav–Muslim bloc.

Yadav also offered a cautionary note about the long-term future of the JD(U) within the NDA. He indicated that although an immediate takeover of Nitish Kumar’s party is unlikely — particularly given its strong showing in the election, where it won 85 seats — a gradual weakening of the JD(U) has already begun.

 According to him, even if the BJP ends up having to let Nitish Kumar serve another term as chief minister, the party will almost certainly position a powerful BJP deputy chief minister, and JD(U) leaders may gradually be engulfed by the BJP.