The unending Ukraine crisis
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It has been almost 16 months since the war in Ukraine disrupted global peace, and it shows no sign of abating. Moreover, there has been no concreted effort on the part of the UN or other nations. The apparent impact of war on the world order is making adverse impact globally. International trade has been turned off-balance since the start of the war in February 2022 due to shortages of food grains including wheat, oil market had unusual volatility, in addition to shortages of microchip raw materials, scarcity of goods due to the embargo on Russia, and an overall slowdown related to the war in a key geographical area. At the time of writing this, Ukraine has reportedly recaptured some Russian-occupied cities and strengthened its defences. But they have yet to make any substantial gains beyond that as expected. There are reports that preparations for a Ukraine rebound are still underway. In the meantime, thousands died on both sides. Last Monday, Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed to have recaptured seven villages. Arms readily available from the West have bolstered Ukraine, but they have not translated into significant gains on the battlefield. The Russian army also inflicted some shocks on Ukraine, including the destruction of a dam. A notable achievement for Ukraine was that their forces were able to penetrate the cities of Russia's Bolgorod border region through offensives. And the push to recapture the Russian-held city of Bakhmut on the eastern border remains incomplete. This is where the bloodiest battle took place and where most warriors died. Ukraine's immediate strategy looks like aimed at seizing as much territory as possible by inflicting a blow on the Russian military, and keeping a somewhat weakened Russia as its next-door neighbor, backed by Western weapons. That would require destroying the bridge between Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea, severing communications, or putting Russian bases at risk by other means. But no one fancies that to be so easy.
The US and China are still avoiding direct, active engagement. Even when US President Joe Biden says that he can send as many weapons as needed, the United States fights shy of directly sending troops which will escalate the war. The United States is not interested either in further provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, if pushed to the wall, will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if necessary. China, which fully supports Russia, does not like to open two fronts simultaneously, one with America in Asia and another with NATO in Europe. What China is trying to avoid is not only a Russian defeat, but also a nuclear confrontation and a severing of ties with Europe. So, China is not ready to help Russia on a massive scale in this situation; However, observers believe that China will not stand by when Russia faces defeat.
Analysts talk of different courses the war can take. With Western help, Ukraine may make a massive advance, disrupting Russia's supply chain and possibly recapturing much of the Russian-occupied Donbas region. But that would mean a near total defeat of Russia and resultant ousting of President Putin. The presidential election in Russia is due in next March. But there are also concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons in such an event, or that internal turmoil in Russia could lead to nuclear weapons finding new hands with a propensity to chaos. Another possibility is Russia getting a little war-weary and thus a somewhat mellowed Putin regime will be in place. This can as well be a wishful thinking. Then the current stalemate will continue and Russia will keep the territories it has occupied. With that, there is a possibility that Putin will become more bellicose and thereby seize the entire Ukraine and install a puppet government in Kiev. It would lead to a prolonged Cold War-like situation. If there is to be any change in this, there must be a regime change in America or Russia. When Donald Trump is almost back in the fray as the Republican candidate, such a possibility cannot be ruled out in Washington. Trump has announced that the United States is wasting billions helping Ukraine and that he will withdraw from the war as soon as he comes to power. In Russia, who will replace Putin is just one of those imponderables and beyond easy conjecture. All that can be said now is that if an atmosphere is created to sit around a table and a formula evolved through assiduous negotiations, there will be a leeway to avoid global unrest at least for the time being.
