Global airline passenger traffic to double within 20 years

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced on Thursday that global passenger numbers are expected to double over the next two decades, increasing from 4.3 billion last year. This growth will be driven primarily by emerging markets in the Asia Pacific and the Middle East.

The projected increase in air traffic raises concerns about the aviation industry's environmental impact. Airlines face mounting pressure to meet their commitment to achieve "net zero" carbon emissions by 2050. The IATA predicts an average annual passenger growth rate of 3.6 percent until 2043, with a forecast of 9.7 percent growth this year.

The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead this growth with an average rate of 4.8 percent. Significant contributors include India (6.9 percent), China (5.8 percent), Thailand and Vietnam (6.4 percent each). Africa and the Middle East are projected to see a 3.6 percent increase, while Latin America and the Caribbean anticipate a 2.9 percent rise. In contrast, North America and Europe are expected to grow by 1.7 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

Currently, air transport accounts for less than three percent of global CO2 emissions but is frequently scrutinized due to its service to a minority of the world's population. Airlines are increasingly focusing on sustainable aviation fuels from renewable sources, expected to contribute 65 percent towards the industry's 2050 "net zero" target. However, scaling up the production of these fuels, which currently account for just 0.53 percent of airlines' fuel consumption, will require substantial investment.