Indian population could be physically unfit by 2030: Lancet study

New data published in the Lancet Global Health reveals a startling trend: half of the adult population in India does not meet the World Health Organisation's (WHO) guidelines for sufficient physical activity.

This growing issue is especially pronounced among women, with 57 per cent classified as physically inactive compared to 42 per cent of men. The prevalence of insufficient physical activity among Indian adults has nearly doubled, rising from 22.3 per cent in 2000 to 49.4 per cent in 2022.

If this trend continues unchecked, it is projected that 60 per cent of the Indian population could be physically unfit by 2030, significantly increasing the risk of various diseases.

The WHO recommends that adults engage in at least 150 to 300 minutes of moderate aerobic activity per week, or an equivalent amount of vigorous activity. Insufficient physical activity is defined as not meeting these guidelines, which places individuals at a greater risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, Type 2 diabetes, dementia, and certain types of cancer.

India currently ranks 12th highest in the world for insufficient physical activity, highlighting a significant public health concern.

Globally, about 31 per cent of adults, or approximately 1.8 billion people, did not meet the recommended levels of physical activity in 2022. The highest rates of inactivity were recorded in the high-income Asia-Pacific region and South Asia, with levels of inactivity in other regions ranging from 28 per cent in high-income Western countries to 14 per cent in Oceania.

Experts attribute the increase in physical inactivity to various factors, including more sedentary work patterns, environmental changes making active transport more difficult, and a rise in screen-based leisure activities.

The Indian data is particularly concerning given the country's genetic predisposition to non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and diabetes, which tend to manifest at least a decade earlier in the Indian population compared to others. Lack of physical activity exacerbates these risk factors, posing a significant threat to public health.

The benefits of increased physical activity are well-documented, including reduced risks of heart disease, diabetes, obesity, and some types of cancer, improved mental health, and a stronger immune system.

However, the trend of reduced physical activity, which has been exacerbated by delayed urbanization and industrialization in regions like South Asia, continues to persist. Cultural factors also play a role, particularly for women in these regions, where societal norms can restrict outdoor physical activity.

In India, low levels of physical activity are most evident among middle-aged urban women, although the issue spans all age and gender groups. Misconceptions about household chores being sufficient exercise contribute to this problem.

National initiatives like Fit India and Let’s Move India aim to promote physical activity, but more targeted efforts are needed. These include settings-based group activity promotions in schools, worksites, and communities, as well as urban planning efforts to create safe spaces for physical activity such as protected cycling lanes, pedestrian pathways, and green community areas.

Insufficient physical activity among women in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan is particularly concerning, with these countries lagging behind their neighbours.

In contrast, women in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal are more active and on track to achieve the global target of reducing the female prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 15 per cent by 2030. The disparity is largely due to the disproportionate burden of home duties and caregiving roles on women, which leave them with less time and energy for physical activity.