Washington: President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Iraq, stating that the United States will withdraw its support if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki returns to power. The threat comes days after the Coordination Framework, a dominant coalition of Shiite parties, announced its backing for Maliki following the failure of caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to form a government. The US administration views Maliki’s potential return as a gateway to increased Iranian influence in Baghdad.
In a social media post, Trump highlighted the instability that characterised Maliki’s previous tenure. He noted that under Maliki’s leadership, the country descended into poverty and chaos, a scenario he insisted must not be repeated. Trump stated that due to Maliki’s policies and ideologies, the US would cease assistance if he were elected, arguing that without American help, Iraq would have no chance of success or prosperity. This political intervention arrives at a tense moment in the Middle East, as Trump weighs potential strikes on neighbouring Iran in response to its crackdown on anti-government protests.
The political landscape in Baghdad shifted recently when Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose bloc won the largest share of seats in the November parliamentary elections, stepped aside. This move cleared the path for Maliki, who had been competing for the Coordination Framework's endorsement. Maliki previously served two terms beginning in 2006, initially with the blessing of President George W. Bush. However, his relationship with Washington deteriorated as US officials accused him of monopolising power, alienating Sunni and Kurdish populations, and exacerbating sectarian tensions that facilitated the rise of the Islamic State group.
The Trump administration has been signaling its disapproval through diplomatic channels as well. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Sudani in a phone call that the US was deeply concerned about a pro-Iran government taking root in Iraq. The State Department emphasised that a government controlled by Tehran could not prioritise Iraq’s interests or maintain a beneficial partnership with Washington. While analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies note that Trump’s opposition creates a significant hurdle for Maliki, they caution that in Iraqi politics, outcomes are rarely certain.
Tensions are further complicated by the US military posture in the region. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying warships recently arrived in the Middle East, fuelling speculation that Trump may order airstrikes on Iran. This follows a shift in naval resources, including the redirection of the USS Gerald Ford to the Caribbean to support operations that led to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. As Washington pushes Baghdad to disarm Iran-backed groups, the potential return of Maliki threatens to fracture the fragile diplomatic balance between the two nations.